Angus Reid Global Monitor : Polls & Research

Lula Could Win First Round in Brazil

September 01, 2006

- Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva could earn a new four-year term as Brazil's president, according to a poll by Instituto Sensus. 51.4 per cent of respondents would support the Worker's Party (PT) incumbent in next month's ballot.

Former Sao Paulo governor Geraldo Alckmin of the Brazilian Party of Social Democracy (PSDB) is second with 19.6 per cent, followed by former PT member and senator Heloisa Helena of the Socialism and Freedom Party (PSOL) 8.6 per cent.

Support is lower for former education minister Cristovam Buarque of the Democratic Labour Party (PDT), Luciano Bivar of the Social Liberal Party (PSL), Ana Maria Rangel of the Republican Progressive Party (PRP), Jose Maria Eymael of the Social Democratic Christian Party (PSDC), and Rui Costa Pimenta of the Workers Cause Party (PCO).

Lula—a three-time presidential candidate—won the October 2002 election with 61 per cent of the vote in a run-off against the PSDB's Jose Serra. In the first round, Lula received 47 per cent of the vote, while Serra garnered 24 per cent. In a prospective run-off against Alckmin, Lula holds a 25.9-point edge.

Last year, the Brazilian government was the target of criticism after Brazilian Labour Party (PTB) member Roberto Jefferson declared that members of two political organizations—the Liberal Party (PL) and the Progressive Party (PP)—received payments of up to $12,000 U.S. from the government in exchange for support in the legislative branch. Jefferson has so far provided no evidence to back his allegations.

On Aug. 31, Lula expressed confidence in his reform plans, saying, "I'm not sure if we will be able to achieve all that needs to be done, but it will not be due to lack of effort, commitment and loyalty to the principles that made us reach the presidency. If we can't deliver, it will be because of extraterrestrial factors."

The presidential election is scheduled for Oct. 1. If no candidate garners more than 50 per cent of all cast ballots, a run-off will take place on Oct. 29.

Polling Data

What candidate would you vote for in the 2006 presidential election?

Aug. 25

Aug. 4

Jul. 2006

Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva (PT)

51.4%

47.9%

44.1%

Geraldo Alckmin (PSDB)

19.6%

19.7%

27.2%

Heloisa Helena (PSOL)

8.6%

9.3%

5.4%

Cristovam Buarque (PDT)

1.9%

0.6%

1.4%

Luciano Bivar (PSL)

0.8%

0.2%

0.3%

Ana Maria Rangel (PRP)

0.4%

--

1.2%

Jose Maria Eymael (PSDC)

0.2%

0.4%

0.3%

Rui Costa Pimenta (PCO)

0.2%

0.1%

0.3%

Run-Off Scenario

Aug. 25

Aug. 4

Jul. 2006

Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva (PT)

56.7%

52.5%

48.6%

Geraldo Alckmin (PSDB)

30.8%

29.8%

35.8%

Source: Instituto Sensus
Methodology: Interviews with 2,000 Brazilian adults, conducted from Aug. 22 to Aug. 25, 2006. Margin of error is 3 per cent.

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