July 04, 2006

Abstract: - Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva remains the favourite in this year's presidential race in Brazil, according to a poll by Datafolha published in Folha de Sao Paulo. 45 per cent of respondents would vote for the Worker's Party (PT) member in the election's first round, up two points since late May.

- Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva remains the favourite in this year's presidential race in Brazil, according to a poll by Datafolha published in Folha de Sao Paulo. 45 per cent of respondents would vote for the Worker's Party (PT) member in the election's first round, up two points since late May.

Sao Paulo governor Geraldo Alckmin of the Brazilian Party of Social Democracy (PSDB) is second with 22 per cent, followed by former PT member and senator Heloisa Helena of the Socialism and Freedom Party (PSOL) with seven per cent.

Support is lower for Eneas Carneiro of the Party of the Reconstruction of the National Order (PRONA), Roberto Freire of the Socialist People's Party (PPS), former education minister Cristovam Buarque of the Democratic Labour Party (PDT) and Jose Maria Eymael of the Social Democratic Christian Party (PSDC).

Lula—a three-time presidential candidate—won the October 2002 election with 61 per cent of the vote in a run-off against the PSDB's Jose Serra. In the first round, Lula received 47 per cent of the vote, while Serra garnered 24 per cent. In a prospective run-off against Alckmin, Lula holds an 11-point advantage.

Last year, the Brazilian government was the target of criticism after Brazilian Labour Party (PTB) member Roberto Jefferson declared that members of two political organizations—the Liberal Party (PL) and the Progressive Party (PP)—received payments of up to $12,000 U.S. from the government in exchange for support in the legislative branch. Jefferson has so far provided no evidence to back his allegations.

On Jun. 26, Lula officially launched his candidacy in Brasilia. The president declared, "I am here to tell you that I have humbly decided to submit my name and my government to the judgment of my Brazilian brothers." Current vice-president Jose Alencar will once again be Lula's running mate.

The presidential election is scheduled for Oct. 1. If no candidate garners more than 50 per cent of all cast ballots, a run-off will take place on Oct. 29.

Polling Data

If the 2006 presidential election took place today, and the candidates were these, who would you vote for?

	Jun. 28	May 24	Apr. 7
Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva (PT)	45%	43%	40%
Geraldo Alckmin (PSDB)	22%	21%	20%
Heloisa Helena (PSOL)	7%	6%	5%
Eneas Carneiro (PRONA)	4%	3%	3%
Roberto Freire (PPS)	2%	1%	1%
Cristovam Buarque (PDT)	1%	1%	1%
Jose Maria Eymael (PSDC)	1%	1%	1%
Anthony Garotinho (PMDB)	--	7%	15%

Run-Off Scenario

	Jun. 28	May 24	Apr. 7
Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva (PT)	51%	52%	52%
Geraldo Alckmin (PSDB)	40%	35%	37%

Source: Datafolha / Folha de Sao Paulo
Methodology: Interviews with 2,828 Brazilian adults, conducted on Jun. 28 and Jun. 29, 2006. Margin of error is 2 per cent.