Angus Reid Global Monitor : Polls & Research

Kirchner Would Get New Victory in Argentina

May 19, 2006

(Angus Reid Global Scan) - A majority of adults in Argentina would support Néstor Kirchner in the next presidential election, according to a poll by Ricardo Rouvier y Asociados. 54.3 per cent of respondents would vote for the incumbent head of state.

Mauricio Macri of Commitment for Change (CC) is second with 19.8 per cent, followed by Elisa Carrió of the Alliance Affirmation for an Egalitarian Republic (ARI) with 13.2 per cent, and former president Carlos Menem with 7.8 per cent.

Kirchner finished second to Menem in the presidential election held in April 2003. Menem withdrew from the scheduled run-off after voting intention polls suggested an overwhelming victory for Kirchner, candidate of the Front for Victory (FV).

Argentina has held five presidential elections since the demise of an eight-year military dictatorship in 1982. In the event no candidate garners more than 45 per cent of the vote—or reaches a percentage between 40 and 45 per cent with a 10 per cent lead over the closest competitor—a run-off between the two leading candidates must take place.

Yesterday, senator Carlos Reutemann commented on Kirchner's chances, saying, "Although it is not quite the right time yet, the president has every right to seek re-election. This will be a personal decision that must be backed by the people, but the numbers are clearly in his favour."

The next presidential election is tentatively scheduled for April 2007.

Polling Data

Who would you vote for if the presidential election took place today?

May 2006

Dec. 2005

Néstor Kirchner

54.3%

48%

Mauricio Macri

19.8%

18%

Elisa Carrió

13.2%

16%

Carlos Menem

7.8%

5%

Source: Ricardo Rouvier y Asociados
Methodology: Face-to-face interviews with 1,200 Argentine adults, conducted in May 2006. No margin of error was provided.

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