Angus Reid Global Monitor : Polls & Research

Calderón Surpasses López Obrador in México

May 12, 2006

(Angus Reid Global Scan) - Support for Felipe Calderón of the governing National Action Party (PAN) increased this month in Mexico, according to a poll by Parametría. 36 per cent of respondents would vote for the PAN contender in this year's presidential election.

Former Mexico City mayor Andrés Manuel López Obrador of the Democratic Revolution Party (PRD) is second with 34 per cent, followed by former Tabasco governor Roberto Madrazo of the Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) with 26 per cent, Patricia Mercado of the Social-Democratic and Peasant Alternative Party (PASC) with three per cent, and Roberto Campa of the New Alliance Party (PNA) with one per cent.

Support for Calderón increased by three points since April, while backing for López Obrador and Madrazo fell by one point and two points respectively. López Obrador did not take part in the Apr. 25 presidential debate. The PRD nominee will attend a second and final meeting of candidates on Jun. 6.

The PAN's Vicente Fox ended 71 years of uninterrupted rule by the PRI in the 2000 election, winning a six-year term with 42.5 per cent of the vote.

Yesterday, Calderón urged the other presidential candidates to "make a clear commitment without hesitation in favour of democracy and legality." López Obrador declared, "I have already made clear that we support solving conflicts trough politics, dialogue, accords and negotiation."

The Mexican presidential election is scheduled for Jul. 2.

Polling Data

What candidate would you vote for in the 2006 presidential election?

May 2006

Apr. 2006

Mar. 2006

Felipe Calderón (PAN)

36%

33%

29%

Andrés Manuel López Obrador (PRD)

34%

35%

40%

Roberto Madrazo (PRI)

26%

28%

29%

Patricia Mercado (PASC)

3%

2%

1%

Roberto Campa (PNA)

1%

2%

1%

Source: Parametría
Methodology: Interviews with 1,000 Mexican adults, conducted from May 5 to May 8, 2006. Margin of error is 3.1 per cent.

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