April 05, 2006

Abstract: (Angus Reid Global Scan) - A poll by CSA released by Marianne places Nicolas Sarkozy and Ségolène Royal as the favourite contenders before the next presidential election in France.

(Angus Reid Global Scan) - A poll by CSA released by Marianne places Nicolas Sarkozy and Ségolène Royal as the favourite contenders before the next presidential election in France.

In the first sample, interior minister Sarkozy of the centre-right Union for a Popular Movement (UMP) is first with 34 per cent, followed by Royal—the leader of the regional government of Poitou-Charentes and a prospective Socialist Party (PS) candidate—with 26 per cent, and Jean-Marie Le Pen of the National Front (FN) with 12 per cent. Support for UMP member and current prime minister Dominique de Villepin stands at four per cent, down eight points since January.

In a second sample, which omits de Villepin as a prospective contender, Sarkozy is first with 34 per cent, followed by Royal with 27 per cent, Le Pen with 12 per cent, Union for French Democracy (UDF) leader François Bayrou with eight per cent, and Revolutionary Communist League (LCR) member Olivier Besancenot with six per cent. In a prospective run-off, Royal holds a four-point advantage over Sarkozy.

Earlier this year, de Villepin promoted the First Employment Contract (CPE)—a new type of agreement to encourage companies to employ younger workers. However, students have protested over the fact that, under the new plan, anyone under 26 would require a two-year trial period before signing an indefinite contract.

The UMP's Jacques Chirac won the presidential ballot in 1995, and was re-elected in a run-off over Le Pen in May 2002. The next election is tentatively scheduled for April 2007.

Polling Data

Among the following candidates, for whom would there be the most chances than you vote with the first turn of the presidential election?

Option 1

	Mar. 2006	Jan. 2006
Nicolas Sarkozy	34%	26%
Ségolène Royal	26%	27%
Jean-Marie Le Pen	12%	9%
Olivier Besancenot	6%	6%
François Bayrou	6%	5%
Arlette Laguiller	5%	4%
Dominique de Villepin	4%	12%
Marie-George Buffet	4%	4%
Philippe de Villiers	2%	5%
Dominique Voynet	1%	2%

Option 2

	Mar. 2006	Feb. 2006
Nicolas Sarkozy	34%	31%
Ségolène Royal	27%	28%
Jean-Marie Le Pen	12%	9%
François Bayrou	8%	9%
Olivier Besancenot	6%	6%
Arlette Laguiller	5%	4%
Marie-George Buffet	4%	4%
Philippe de Villiers	3%	7%
Dominique Voynet	1%	2%

Run-Off Scenario

	Mar. 2006	Jan. 2006
Ségolène Royal	52%	51%
Nicolas Sarkozy	48%	49%

Source: CSA / Marianne
Methodology: Telephone interviews with 839 French adults, conducted on Mar. 29, 2006. No margin of error was provided.