April 05, 2006

Abstract: (Angus Reid Global Scan) - Ollanta Humala is still the frontrunner before this Sunday's presidential election in Peru, according to a poll by the Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú. 31 per cent of respondents would support the Peruvian Nationalist Party (PNP) contender, up 11 points in a month.

(Angus Reid Global Scan) - Ollanta Humala is still the frontrunner before this Sunday's presidential election in Peru, according to a poll by the Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú. 31 per cent of respondents would support the Peruvian Nationalist Party (PNP) contender, up 11 points in a month.

Lourdes Flores Nano of the Popular Christian Party (PPC) is second with 27 per cent, followed by former president Alan García of the American Revolutionary People's Alliance (APRA) with 20 per cent, and Martha Chávez of New Majority (NM) and former head of state Valentín Paniagua of Popular Action (AP) with seven per cent each.

The presidential election is scheduled for Apr. 9. If no candidate garners more than 50 per cent of all cast ballots, a run-off will take place on May 7. In a prospective second round scenario, Flores Nano would defeat Humala with 55 per cent. Either contender would win against García if the former president were to reach the run-off.

In an interview published yesterday in Argentina's Página 12, Humala predicted a brief mandate for Flores Nano should she become president, declaring, "What happened with the presidents of other Latin American countries would happen here, she would be kicked out by the people. It will be very hard for Lourdes Flores to reach a year of government."

Current president Alejandro Toledo won the June 2001 election as the PP nominee over the APRA's García. Toledo cannot seek a consecutive term in office.

Polling Data

Which of these candidates would you vote for in the presidential election?

	Mar. 2006	Feb. 2006
Ollanta Humala (ME)	31%	20%
Lourdes Flores Nano (PPC)	27%	29%
Alan García (APRA)	20%	14%
Valentín Paniagua (AP)	7%	6%
Martha Chávez (NM)	7%	4%

Run-Off Scenarios

Lourdes Flores Nano (PPC) 55% - 45% Ollanta Humala (PNP)
Lourdes Flores Nano (PPC) 59% - 41% Alan García (APRA)
Ollanta Humala (PNP) 51% - 49% Alan García (APRA)

Source: Instituto de Opinión Pública de la Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú
Methodology: Interviews with 1,945 Peruvian adults in 19 provinces, conducted from Mar. 24 to Mar. 26, 2006. Margin of error is 3.1 per cent.