Angus Reid Global Monitor : Polls & Research

Larger Advantage for Flores Nano in Peru

February 01, 2006
Abstract: (Angus Reid Global Scan) - Lourdes Flores Nano has solidified her position as the frontrunner in Peru's presidential election, according to a poll by Universidad de Lima. 28.1 per cent of respondents would vote for the Popular Christian Party (PPC) candidate.

(Angus Reid Global Scan) - Lourdes Flores Nano has solidified her position as the frontrunner in Peru's presidential election, according to a poll by Universidad de Lima. 28.1 per cent of respondents would vote for the Popular Christian Party (PPC) candidate.

Ollanta Humala of the Peruvian Nationalist Party (PNP) is second with 16.8 per cent, followed by former president Alan García of the American Revolutionary People's Alliance (APRA) with 11.9 per cent, and former head of state Valentín Paniagua of Popular Action (AP) with 7.2 per cent.

Support is lower for Martha Chávez of New Majority (NM), Jaime Salinas of National Justice (JN), and Rafael Belaúnde Aubry of Possible Peru (PP).

Last month, Isaac Humala—Ollanta's father—caused a controversy after he referred to Flores Nano as "a right-wing spinster." The PPC candidate reacted to the statement by saying, "I will not build my campaign on tantrums or insults."

In three prospective run-off scenarios, Flores Nano holds a 37.4-point edge over García, a 24.3-point advantage over Paniagua, and a 31.4-point lead Over Humala.

Current president Alejandro Toledo won the June 2001 election as the PP nominee over the APRA's García. Toledo cannot seek a consecutive term in office. The election is scheduled for Apr. 6.

Polling Data

Which of these candidates would you support in the presidential election?

 

Jan. 2006

Dec. 2005

Lourdes Flores Nano (PPC)

28.1%

25.6%

Ollanta Humala (PNP)

16.8%

14.3%

Alan García (APRA)

11.9%

16.2%

Valentín Paniagua (AP)

7.2%

8.3%

Martha Chávez (NM)

2.5%

2.4%

Jaime Salinas (JN)

1.6%

3.7%

Rafael Belaúnde Aubry (PP)

1.1%

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Run-Off Scenarios

Lourdes Flores Nano (PPC) 60.0% - 22.6% Alan García (APRA)
Lourdes Flores Nano (PPC) 53.4% - 29.1% Valentín Paniagua (AP)
Lourdes Flores Nano (PPC) 59.1% - 27.7% Ollanta Humala (ME)

Source: Universidad de Lima
Methodology: Interviews with 2,023 Peruvian adults, conducted from Jan. 20 to Jan. 22, 2006. Margin of error is 2.23 per cent.