December 29, 2005

Abstract: (Angus Reid Global Scan) - The governing Liberal party holds a six-point advantage in Canada, according to a three-day rolling poll released today by SES Research and CPAC. 38 per cent of respondents would vote for the Liberals in next month's federal election.

(Angus Reid Global Scan) - The governing Liberal party holds a six-point advantage in Canada, according to a three-day rolling poll released today by SES Research and CPAC. 38 per cent of respondents would vote for the Liberals in next month's federal election.

The opposition Conservative party is second with 32 per cent, followed by the New Democratic Party (NDP) with 14 per cent, the Bloc Québécois with 13 per cent, and the Green party with four per cent.

Support for the Tories and the Bloc increased by one point, while backing for the NDP and the Greens fell by the same margin. Canadians will elect a new government on Jan. 23, 2006.

In the preferred prime minister category, 30 per cent of respondents prefer Liberal leader and current prime minister Paul Martin. Conservative leader Stephen Harper is second with 24 per cent, followed by the NDP's Jack Layton with 12 per cent, Bloc leader Giles Duceppe with five per cent, and Green leader Jim Harris with two per cent.

The Liberal party has formed the government since 1993. The Liberals hold a five-point lead in Atlantic Canada, and an 11-point edge in Ontario. In Western Canada, the Conservatives are ahead by nine points. In Quebec, 53 per cent of respondents would back the Bloc.

Background - How it began, how we got here
Campaign Log - Day-to-day coverage of parties and leaders
The Numbers - Where the parties stand, where they go
Live Commentary - Who's winning, who's losing, why it matters

Polling Data

If a federal election were held today, could you please rank your top two current local voting preferences? (First ranked reported) (*)

	Dec. 29	Dec. 28	Dec. 23	Dec. 22
Liberal	38%	38%	39%	37%
Conservative	32%	31%	29%	29%
New Democratic Party	14%	15%	15%	15%
Bloc Québécois	13%	12%	12%	12%
Green	4%	5%	5%	6%

Based on what you know about the federal party leaders and their performance during the election campaign up until today, who do you think would make the best prime minister?

	Dec. 29	Dec. 28	Dec. 23	Dec. 22
Paul Martin (Lib.)	30%	28%	28%	27%
Stephen Harper (Con.)	24%	25%	24%	23%
Jack Layton (NDP)	12%	13%	13%	13%
Giles Duceppe (BQ)	5%	5%	6%	5%
Jim Harris (Grn.)	2%	2%	2%	2%
Unsure	17%	17%	18%	20%
None	10%	10%	9%	9%

Provincial Breakdown

	Western Canada	Ontario	Quebec	Atlantic Canada
Liberal	34%	46%	30%	42%
Conservative	43%	35%	9%	37%
New Democratic Party	17%	14%	6%	17%
Bloc Québécois	--	--	53%	--
Green	6%	5%	2%	3%

(*) Release date

Source: SES Research / CPAC
Methodology: A national random telephone survey is conducted nightly by SES Research throughout the campaign. Each evening a new group of 400 eligible voters are interviewed. The daily tracking figures are based on a three-day rolling sample comprised of 1,200 interviews. To update the tracking a new day of interviewing is added and the oldest day dropped. Margin of error is 2.9 per cent.