December 27, 2005

Abstract: (Angus Reid Global Scan) - The Kadima party of prime minister Ariel Sharon remains the top political organization in Israel, according to three recent voting intention polls. The results of a survey by the Teleseker published in Maariv suggest that Kadima would secure 40 seats in next year's election to the Israeli Parliament, followed by the Labour party with 19, and the Likud party with 15.

(Angus Reid Global Scan) - The Kadima party of prime minister Ariel Sharon remains the top political organization in Israel, according to three recent voting intention polls. The results of a survey by the Teleseker published in Maariv suggest that Kadima would secure 40 seats in next year's election to the Israeli Parliament, followed by the Labour party with 19, and the Likud party with 15.

A poll by Dahaf Institute published in Yediot Ahronot gives Kadima 39 seats in the Knesset, with Labour in second place with 22, and Likud in third place with 12. A study by Maagar Mochot published in Makor Rishon suggests Kadima would secure 38 seats in the Knesset. The Israeli Parliament's 120 seats are allocated by proportional representation.

Sharon will lead the newly created Kadima into the election, scheduled for Mar. 28, 2005. Amir Peretz became the new leader of the Labour party in November, and former finance minister and prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu—who resigned from the current cabinet after opposing the "Disengagement Plan"—won the Likud primary election earlier this month.

Yesterday, Sharon and Peretz met to discuss security issues. Israeli law requires the prime minister to offer updates to the leader of the opposition on a regular basis. Peretz lamented the fact that he was not able to converse about socio-economic concerns with Sharon.

Polling Data

Prospective results of a Knesset election
(Results presented in seats)

	Teleseker	Dahaf	Maagar
Kadima (Forward)	40	39	38
Labour	19	22	20
Likud (Consolidation)	15	12	15
International Organization of Torah-observant Sephardic Jews (Shas)	9	10	10
National Union (Ikhud)	8	5	5
Change-Centre Party (Shinui-Mifleget Merkaz)	5	5	4
Yahadut Hatorah (United Torah Judaism)	5	5	5
Together (Yachad)	5	5	4
Israel Our Home (Yisrael Beiteinu)	4	5	5
Mafdal (National Religious Party)	3	4	3
Arab parties	7	8	8

Source: Teleseker / Maariv
Methodology: Interviews with 560 Israeli adults, conducted on Dec. 22, 2005. Margin of error is 4.3 per cent.

Source: Dahaf Institute / Yediot Ahronot
Methodology: Interviews with 500 Israeli adults, conducted on the week of Dec. 23, 2005. Margin of error is 4.3 per cent.

Source: Maagar Mochot / Makor Rishon
Methodology: Interviews with 500 Israeli adults, conducted on the week of Dec. 23, 2005. Margin of error is 4.3 per cent.