December 18, 2005

Abstract: (Angus Reid Global Scan) - Ariel Sharon's Kadima party remains the most popular political organization in Israel, according to four recent voting intention polls. The results of a survey by the Teleseker published in Maariv suggest that Kadima would secure 39 seats in next year's election to the Israeli Parliament, followed by the Labour party with 22, and the Likud party with 13.

(Angus Reid Global Scan) - Ariel Sharon's Kadima party remains the most popular political organization in Israel, according to four recent voting intention polls. The results of a survey by the Teleseker published in Maariv suggest that Kadima would secure 39 seats in next year's election to the Israeli Parliament, followed by the Labour party with 22, and the Likud party with 13.

On Nov. 20, Sharon announced that he was leaving the Likud party to form a new political organization. Former Labour leader Shimon Peres has endorsed Sharon as the "only leader" who can bring peace to Israel.

A poll by Dialog published in Haaretz gives Kadima 35 seats in the Knesset, with Labour in second place with 24, and Likud in third place with 12. Studies by Maagar Mochot published in Makor Rishon and by the Dahaf Institute published in Yediot Ahronot suggest Kadima would secure 38 seats in the Knesset.

Last month, the Labour party chose Amir Peretz as its new leader in a primary election. The Likud will hold its own primary tomorrow. Along with former finance minister Benjamin Netanyahu—who resigned from the current cabinet after opposing the "Disengagement Plan"—the contenders include defence minister Shaul Mofaz, foreign minister Silvan Shalom, agriculture minister Yisrael Katz, and political activist Moshe Feiglin.

Last week, the Tel Aviv Magistrate's Court rejected a request made by Omri Sharon—the prime minister's son—to postpone his sentencing hearing, which will be held on Jan. 23, 2006.

Omri Sharon, who was convicted of lying under oath, violations of the electoral code, and the fictitious registration of corporate documents, made the request in an effort to prevent any political damage to Kadima during the electoral campaign. According to the indictment, Sharon's son received about $1.5 million U.S. in campaign financing from corporations in Israel and abroad between July 1999 and February 2000.

Israel's parliamentary election has been scheduled for Mar. 28, 2006.

Polling Data

Prospective results of a Knesset election
(Results presented in seats)

	Teleseker	Dialog	Maagar	Dahaf
Kadima (Forward)	39	35	38	38
Labour	22	24	20	23
Likud (Consolidation)	13	12	14	11
International Organization of Torah-observant Sephardic Jews (Shas)	8	10	8	10
Change-Centre Party (Shinui-Mifleget Merkaz)	4	4	4	4
National Union (Ikhud)	6	6	5	6
Yahadut Hatorah (United Torah Judaism)	5	6	5	6
Together (Yachad)	5	4	4	4
Israel Our Home (Yisrael Beiteinu)	5	7	5	7
Mafdal (National Religious Party)	5	4	3	3
Arab parties	8	8	8	8

Source: Teleseker / Maariv
Methodology: Interviews with 501 Israeli adults, conducted on Dec. 14, 2005. Margin of error is 4.3 per cent.

Source: Dialog / Haaretz
Methodology: Interviews with 500 Israeli adults, conducted on Dec. 14, 2005. Margin of error is 4.3 per cent.

Source: Maagar Mochot / Makor Rishon
Methodology: Interviews with 500 Israeli adults, conducted on Dec. 15, 2005. Margin of error is 4.3 per cent.

Source: Dahaf Institute / Yediot Ahronot
Methodology: Interviews with 510 Israeli adults, conducted on Dec. 14, 2005. Margin of error is 4.3 per cent.