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Angus Reid Global Monitor : Polls & Research
Chilean Election Closer Than Previously Thought
(Angus Reid Global Scan) - Businessman Sebastián Piñera has closed the gap considerably in Chile's presidential ballot, according to a poll by the Centro de Investigación de Mercado de la Universidad Mayor. 32 per cent of respondents would vote for the National Renewal (RN) candidate, while 31 per cent would back former defence minister Michelle Bachelet of the Socialist Party (PS).
Former Santiago mayor Joaquín Lavín of the conservative Independent Democratic Union (UDI) is third with 16 per cent, followed by Tomás Hirsch of the leftist Together We Can (JP) with six per cent. The poll marks the first time that a candidate other than Bachelet has appeared in first place, albeit with an advantage that falls within the margin of error.
The Agreement of Parties for Democracy (CPD)—which includes the PS, the Christian-Democratic Party of Chile (PCD), the Party for Democracy (PD) and the Radical Social-Democratic Party (PRSD)—officially nominated Bachelet in July.
Lavín lost the 2000 run-off to current head of state Ricardo Lagos of the CPD by 2.6 per cent. The presidential election is scheduled for Dec. 11. If no candidate garners more than 50 per cent of all cast ballots, the top two finishers will participate in a second round on Jan. 15, 2006.
Yesterday, Piñera said he was "certain" of his presence in the run-off, adding, "I will lead a coalition of centrists, progressives and independents, which will become a new majority." Bachelet dismissed the results of recent surveys, saying, "I have insisted and said, about every interpretation that has come out, that the last word will arrive on (election day)."
Polling Data
Who would you vote for if the presidential election took place this Sunday?
Sebastián Piñera (RN) | 32% |
Michelle Bachelet (CPD) | 31% |
Joaquín Lavín (UDI) | 16% |
Tomás Hirsch (JP) | 6% |
Source: Centro de Investigación de Mercado de la Universidad Mayor
Methodology: Interviews with 400 Chilean adults, conducted on Nov. 24 and Nov. 25, 2005. Margin of error is 5 per cent.