(02/25/13) -

Throne Speech and Budget Have No Effect on British Columbian Voters

The opposition BC New Democrats keeps a sizeable lead over the governing BC Liberals, and Adrian Dix is still the preferred premier.

The governing BC Liberals were unable to increase their standing among voters in British Columbia following their throne speech and pre-election budget, a new Angus Reid Public Opinion poll has found.

The online survey of a representative provincial sample of 803 British Columbian adults also shows that BC New Democratic Party (NDP) leader Adrian Dix is still perceived as the best person to handle most pressing issues, including the economy.

Voting Intention

Across British Columbia, 47 per cent of decided voters and leaners (+1 since January) would support the BC NDP candidate in their riding if a provincial election were held tomorrow.

The governing BC Liberals are second with 31 per cent (=), followed by the BC Green Party with 10 per cent (=) and the BC Conservatives with nine per cent (-1).

The BC NDP maintains a high level of support in Vancouver Island (53%), and holds the upper hand over the BC Liberals in Metro Vancouver (44% to 35%) and the Interior (45% to 29%). The BC Greens once again had a solid showing in Vancouver Island (19%, just three points behind the BC Liberals). The BC Conservatives dropped to single digits in Metro Vancouver (9%) and are still a distant third in the Southern Interior (13%).

The BC NDP holds a 12-point lead over the BC Liberals among male voters (46% to 34%), and a 20-point advantage among women (47% to 27%). The BC Liberals trail the New Democrats among all age groups, and have their best showing with those over the age of 55 (37%, nine points behind the BC NDP).

There is little fluctuation on the retention rates, with the BC NDP keeping 87 per cent of its voters in 2009, and the BC Liberals holding on to 66 per cent of their supporters from the last provincial election. The governing party continues to lose voters to both the BC NDP (17%) and the BC Conservatives (11%).

Three-in-five British Columbians (59%) believe it is time for a change in government in British Columbia, while one-in-four (24%) would re-elect the BC Liberals. While 90 per cent of NDP voters in 2009 think it is time for a new party to take over in Victoria, only 53 per cent of BC Liberal voters in 2009 endorse the continuation of the current government.

Approval, Momentum, Best Premier and Issues

Official Opposition and BC NDP leader Adrian Dix keeps the highest approval rating at 43 per cent (-3 since January), followed by Premier and BC Liberals leader Christy Clark (31%, unchanged), Green Party leader Jane Sterk (24%, +1) and BC Conservative Party leader John Cummins (15%, +2). On the Best Premier question, Dix (30%) remains ahead of Clark (21%).

Across British Columbia, 28 per cent of respondents say their opinion of Dix has worsened, bringing his momentum score to negative territory (-7). Still, the results of this question are considerably worse for Clark (-36) and Cummins (-24).

The economy (28%) remains the top issue for British Columbians, but health care (20%, +6 since January) has emerged as a key concern, followed by leadership (14%) and the environment (9%). Dix is now clearly the preferred person to handle most issues, with leads over Clark on health care (38% to 18%), education (35% to 23%), the economy (30% to 24%) and crime (24% to 17%). The opposition leader is slightly ahead of the incumbent premier on federal provincial relations, and barely trails Sterk on the environment.

Analysis

In a month that featured several opportunities to gain ground, the BC Liberals were unable to establish a new connection with the electorate. The governing party did not move at all on the provincial voting intention question, saw the Premier continuing to trail the opposition leader on key issues, and kept a poor retention rate from the last election fought under Gordon Campbell.

The BC NDP is managing to keep its core base, despite a difficult month for its leader. Almost three-in-ten respondents report having a worse opinion of Dix and his disapproval rating rose by seven points since January. Still, there is no discernible effect on the voting question to suggest that the BC Liberals are benefitting from uncommitted voters who are taking a second look at Dix.

The Greens had another good month in Vancouver Island, while the BC Conservatives are nowhere near the level of support they enjoyed 12 months ago. Still, the leaders of these two parties remain in single digits on most issues. Although Sterk is regarded as a better option on the environment, many British Columbians are undecided on how she’s handling her duties.

Full Report, Detailed Tables and Methodology (PDF)

CONTACT:

Mario Canseco, Vice President, Angus Reid Public Opinion
+877 730 3570
mario.canseco@angus-reid.com

Methodology: From February 21 to February 22, 2013, Angus Reid Public Opinion conducted an online survey among 803 randomly selected British Columbia adults who are Angus Reid Forum panellists. The margin of error—which measures sampling variability—is +/- 3.5%. The results have been statistically weighted according to the most current education, age, gender and region Census data to ensure a sample representative of the entire adult population of British Columbia. Discrepancies in or between totals are due to rounding.