(11/05/12) -

Obama Holds Upper Hand Over Romney in National U.S. Race

Incumbent particularly strong with younger voters and Independents—Republican remains ahead among voters aged 55 and over.

Barack Obama heads to the final stages of the United States presidential race with a three-point advantage over Mitt Romney, a new Angus Reid Public Opinion poll has found.

In the online survey of a representative national sample of 1,050 American likely voters, 51 per cent of decided voters and leaners (+4 since October) say they will back the incumbent head of state and Democratic Party nominee in tomorrow’s election, while 48 per cent (+1) would support the Republican Party challenger.

Obama has extended his lead among registered voters aged 18-to-34 (66% to 32%), and keeps a six-point edge among female voters (52% to 46%). The two candidates are tied among male voters and those aged 35-to-54, while Romney is more popular among voters over the age of 55 (58% to 41%).

Both candidates keep strong numbers among their respective bases, with Obama garnering 94 per cent of the vote from Democrats, and Romney getting the support of 94 per cent of Republicans. More than half of Independents (55%) say they will cast a ballot for Obama, while two-in-five (42%) will support Romney.

The biggest fluctuation is observed among third party voters, who go from six per cent in a “registered voter” model in October to just one per cent in a “likely voter” calculation in November.

Full Report, Detailed Tables and Methodology (PDF)

CONTACT:

Mario Canseco, Vice President, Angus Reid Public Opinion
+877 730 3570
mario.canseco@angus-reid.com

Methodology: From November 1 to November 3, 2012, Angus Reid Public Opinion conducted an online survey among 1,050 randomly selected American likely voters who are Springboard America panelists. The margin of error—which measures sampling variability—is +/- 3.1%. The results have been statistically weighted according to the most current education, age, gender and region Census data to ensure a sample representative of the entire adult population of the United States. Discrepancies in or between totals are due to rounding.