(07/17/12) -

Obama and Romney Are Dead Even in American Presidential Race

The Democratic incumbent leads on likeability, while the Republican contender is ahead on economic management.

With just over a month to go before the start of the nominating conventions, the two main presidential candidates in the United States are tied, a new Angus Reid Public Opinion poll has found.

In the online survey of a representative national sample of 1,001 American adults, 47 per cent of decided voters (+1 since June) say they will vote for Democratic incumbent Barack Obama, while 47 per cent (=) would cast a ballot for Republican challenger Mitt Romney.

As was the case in May, Romney holds a double-digit lead among male voters (52% to 40%), while Obama maintains the upper hand among female voters (54% to 42%).

Obama is ahead among American voters aged 18-to-34 (54% to 36%), while Romney holds a four-point edge among those aged 35-to-54 (49% to 45%) and a more significant advantage among voters over the age of 55 (54% to 43%).

Issues

Respondents were asked which one of the two major candidates is best suited to deal with 11 issues. Romney posted the highest ranking in seven categories: managing the deficit (40% to 27%), the economy (40% to 32%), job creation (39% to 30%), energy and oil (38% to 30%), government accountability (37% to 31%), immigration (35% to 33%) and crime (32% to 29%). Obama is ahead of Romney on four issues: health care (38% to 35%), foreign policy (37% to 31%), education (37% to 34%) and the environment (36% to 29%).

Momentum Score

President Obama’s momentum score is -22 among all Americans (41% of respondents say their opinion of the head of state worsened in the past three months, while 19% say it improved). Romney’s momentum score for July is -5. Among Independents, both candidates fared badly: Obama at -34, and Romney at -7.

Traits and Characteristics

Obama gets a higher score from respondents than Romney on three of the nine characteristics tracked: being a good speaker and communicator (71%), being in touch with ordinary Americans (43%) and being honest and trustworthy (also 43%),

The two contenders posted comparable scores on sharing the values of voters, being able to unite the country and not divide it, agreeing with people on issues they care about, and dealing with labour unions effectively in the event of a dispute.

Romney continues to hold a sizeable advantage on being a good economic manager (46%) and bringing the kind of change America needs (37%).

Attributes

Respondents to this survey were asked to select up to six words or expressions from a list to describe the two presidential candidates. The top five results for each one of the leaders among all respondents are:

• Barack Obama – Intelligent (50%), inefficient (35%), arrogant (32%), dishonest (32%), out of touch (31%)

• Mitt Romney – Intelligent (46%), out of touch (34%), strong (33%), arrogant (31%), efficient (29%)

Among Independent voters, the top five results are:

• Barack Obama – Intelligent (51%), inefficient (38%), arrogant (32%), out of touch (32%), secretive (29%)

• Mitt Romney – Intelligent (43%), out of touch (33%), arrogant (32%), efficient (29%), strong (25%)

Analysis

The tie in voting intention provides different interpretations for supporters of the two main parties. Obama continues to win the battle on likeability, with more than two-in-five Americans looking at the incumbent president as a person who is in touch and exudes honesty.

Obama, however, is unable to reach the 40 per cent mark on being the best person to handle specific issues—something that Romney achieves on managing the deficit and the economy.

Also, almost half of Americans regard the Republican contender as a good economic manager, while just three-in-ten feel the same way about Obama.

Full Report, Detailed Tables and Methodology (PDF)

CONTACT:

Mario Canseco, Vice President, Angus Reid Public Opinion
+877 730 3570
mario.canseco@angus-reid.com

Methodology: From July 12 to July 13, 2012, Angus Reid Public Opinion conducted an online survey among 1,001 randomly selected American adults who are Springboard America panelists. The margin of error—which measures sampling variability—is +/- 3.1%. The results have been statistically weighted according to the most current education, age, gender and region Census data to ensure a sample representative of the entire adult population of the United States. Discrepancies in or between totals are due to rounding.