(06/12/12) -

Two Contenders in U.S. Presidential Race Are Virtually Tied

Barack Obama keeps the upper hand on environment, education and health care, while Mitt Romney gains on the economy and job creation.

There is no clear frontrunner with less than five months to go before the United States presidential election, a new Angus Reid Public Opinion poll has found.

In the online survey of a representative national sample of 2,019 American adults, 47 per cent of decided voters (-2 since May) say they will vote for Republican challenger Mitt Romney in November, while 46 per cent (=) will cast a ballot for Democratic incumbent Barack Obama.

Romney’s lead among male voters has diminished from 10 points in May to just four points this month (48% to 44%), while Obama is barely ahead among women (48% to 46%). The prospective Republican nominee can count on the support of 56 per cent of voters over the age of 55, while the Democratic candidate holds the support of 54 per cent of voters aged 18-to-34.

The two contenders are practically even among middle-aged voters (Romney 48%, Obama 47%) and Independents (Obama 44%, Romney 43%).

Issues

Respondents were asked which one of the two major candidates is best suited to deal with 11 issues. Obama holds the upper hand over Romney on the environment (37% to 27%), education (39% to 32%), health care (36% to 32%) and foreign policy (36% to 31%).

The two contenders are practically even on crime (Romney 30%, Obama 29%).

Romney leads Obama on six categories: managing the deficit (38% to 28%), the economy (39% to 31%), energy and oil (36% to 30%), job creation (38% to 32%), immigration (35% to 31%), and government accountability (also 35% to 31%),

Momentum Score

Among all Americans, President Obama’s momentum score is -19 (36% of respondents say their opinion of their president worsened in the past three months, while 17% say it has improved). Romney posted a momentum score of +2. Among Independents, Obama stands at -24, and Romney at -4.

Traits and Characteristics

Obama gets a higher score from respondents than Romney on four of the nine characteristics tracked: being a good speaker and communicator (72%), being in touch with ordinary Americans (42%), being honest and trustworthy (42%), and sharing their values (39%).

The two candidates posted similar scores on being able to unite the country and not divide it, agreeing with people on issues they care about, and dealing with labour unions effectively in the event of a dispute.

Romney holds a sizeable advantage on being a good economic manager (43%), and manages to edge Obama in bringing the kind of change America needs (37%).

Analysis

The national race remains tightly contested, with the two parties keeping their respective strengths among younger and older voters. The next five months will provide an opportunity for the two candidates to gain among middle-aged voters and Independents, who are staunchly divided at this point.

The biggest change observed from our last survey is the fact that Romney has gained on Obama on the economy and other related issues, such as managing the deficit and creating jobs. Obama is the preferred choice for the environment, education and health care, but has seen his rival increase his standing on topics the president used to dominate, such as government accountability and representing “change.”

Full Report, Detailed Tables and Methodology (PDF)

CONTACT:

Mario Canseco, Vice President, Angus Reid Public Opinion
+877 730 3570
mario.canseco@angus-reid.com

Methodology: From June 7 to June 8, 2012, Angus Reid Public Opinion conducted an online survey among 2,019 randomly selected American adults who are Springboard America panelists. The margin of error—which measures sampling variability—is +/- 2.2%. The results have been statistically weighted according to the most current education, age, gender and region Census data to ensure a sample representative of the entire adult population of the United States. Discrepancies in or between totals are due to rounding.