(05/14/12) -

Half of Decided Voters in BC Would Support New Democrats in Election

Level of undecided voters rises dramatically when respondents are asked about a possible “Free Enterprise Coalition” of centre-right parties.

Support for the opposition New Democratic Party (NDP) has increased in British Columbia following two by-election victories last month, a new Angus Reid Public Opinion poll has found.

The online survey of a representative provincial sample of 802 British Columbian adults also shows that the NDP would remain ahead of a prospective “Free Enterprise Coalition” encompassing the BC Liberals and the BC Conservatives, but with more than a third of British Columbians opting for a “wait-and-see” approach in the event the two centre-right parties actually merge.

Political Scene

Across British Columbia, 50 per cent of decided voters and leaners (+7 since late March) will cast a ballot for the NDP candidate in their constituency in the next provincial election. The BC Liberals remain at 23 per cent, while the BC Conservatives have dropped four points (19%). The BC Greens are fourth with six per cent, and have failed to reach double digits for the third time this year.

The NDP is the dominant political party in all four regions of the province, keeping particularly high numbers in the North (61%), Vancouver Island (52%) and Metro Vancouver (49%). In the Interior, the New Democrats are first with 48 per cent, while the BC Conservatives are second with 26 per cent. Support for BC Liberals in the Interior has fallen to 18 per cent.

The NDP holds a 17-point lead over the BC Liberals among male voters (45% to 28%), and female voters in the province are choosing the NDP over the BC Liberals by a 3-to-1 margin (55% to 17%). The BC Conservatives are attracting one-in-four voters over the age of 55 (26%), and the New Democrats are now the preferred choice for three-in-five voters aged 18-to-34 (59%).

The seven-point gain is the biggest for the NDP since the election of Adrian Dix as leader. The NDP maintains an impressive retention rate of 88 per cent, and is now attracting one-in-five respondents (20%) who voted for the BC Liberals in the 2009 provincial election.

The BC Liberals are only holding on to roughly half of their voters in the last provincial ballot (48%). Along with the 20 per cent of 2009 BC Liberal voters who are now saying they would vote for the Dix-led NDP, the governing party is losing 30 per cent of its past electors to the BC Conservatives.

“Free Enterprise Coalition”

The survey gauged the possibility of a union of BC Liberals and BC Conservatives, in scenarios where a “Free Enterprise Coalition” is led by three different people. The proposed merged party attracts 20 per cent of respondents under current BC Liberals leader and Premier Christy Clark, 17 per cent under BC Conservative leader John Cummins, and 21 per cent under Deputy Premier and Finance Minister Kevin Falcon.

In all three scenarios, the NDP would garner the backing of about a third of British Columbians, but it is important to note that the level of undecided voters grows dramatically, from 16 per cent in the traditional ballot question, to at least 34 per cent in the questions related to the “Free Enterprise Coalition”. This discrepancy shows that, while the idea of a merger does not immediately materialize in a high level of support for the centre-right option, a significant portion of the electorate remains uncommitted.

Full Report, Detailed Tables and Methodology (PDF)

CONTACT:

Mario Canseco, Vice President, Angus Reid Public Opinion
+877 730 3570
mario.canseco@angus-reid.com

Methodology: From May 7 to May 9, 2012, Angus Reid Public Opinion conducted an online survey among 802 randomly selected British Columbia adults who are Angus Reid Forum panellists. The margin of error—which measures sampling variability—is +/- 3.5%. The results have been statistically weighted according to the most current education, age, gender and region Census data to ensure a sample representative of the entire adult population of British Columbia. Discrepancies in or between totals are due to rounding.