(04/16/12) -

Obama Maintains Six-Point Lead Over Romney in U.S. Race

Women continue to express a preference for Obama, but Romney edges the incumbent president among voters over the age of 55.

Half of decided voters in the United States would support the incumbent president in a head-to-head contest against his probable rival in this year’s election, a new Angus Reid Public Opinion poll has found.

In the online survey of a representative national sample of 1,006 American adults, 50 per cent of decided voters (-1 since March) would cast a ballot for Democrat Barack Obama in November, while 44 per cent (-1) would back Republican Mitt Romney.

Obama has a four-point lead over Romney among male voters (48% to 44%) and a nine-point advantage among women (52% to 43%). While more than half of Americans aged 18-to-34 and 35-to-54 would support Obama, Romney is ahead among respondents over the age of 55.

Ron Paul and Newt Gingrich—who have not quit the race for the Republican nomination—continue to trail Obama. The incumbent president is ahead of Paul by 11 points (50% to 39%) and holds a 23-point lead over Gingrich (56% to 33%).

Analysis

Romney trails Obama for the third consecutive month, but he attracts the largest proportion of Republicans (89%, compared to 77% for Gingrich and 74% for Paul). A big problem for Romney is his standing among Independents, where Obama holds a 20-point lead (55% to 35%). In stark contrast, Independents are practically split in an election pitting Obama against Paul (43% to 40%).

The gender gap continues to affect Romney, who trails Obama by nine points among female voters. Still, the incumbent’s lead is larger in contests against Paul (19 points) and Gingrich (29 points).

Full Report, Detailed Tables and Methodology (PDF)

CONTACT:

Mario Canseco, Vice President, Angus Reid Public Opinion
+877 730 3570
mario.canseco@angus-reid.com

Methodology: From April 12 to April 13, 2012, Angus Reid Public Opinion conducted an online survey among 1,006 randomly selected American adults who are Springboard America panelists. The margin of error—which measures sampling variability—is +/- 3.1%. The results have been statistically weighted according to the most current education, age, gender and region Census data to ensure a sample representative of the entire adult population of the United States. Discrepancies in or between totals are due to rounding.