(04/02/12) -

New Democrats Remain Ahead in BC as Conservatives Tie Liberals

Adrian Dix now has an eight-point lead over Christy Clark on the preferred premier question.

The opposition New Democratic Party (NDP) is still the most popular choice for voters in British Columbia, as the governing BC Liberals have dropped to a tie for second place with the BC Conservative Party, a new Angus Reid Public Opinion poll has found.

The online survey of a representative provincial sample of 800 British Columbian adults also shows that NDP leader Adrian Dix keeps a comfortable lead over incumbent Premier Christy Clark on approval rating and in the preferred premier question.

Political Scene

Across British Columbia, 43 per cent of decided voters and leaners (+1 since late January) will support the NDP candidate in their constituency in the next provincial election. The BC Liberals have dropped five points and are now at 23 per cent, in a tie with the BC Conservatives, who have gained four points in two months. The BC Greens are fourth with eight per cent (-2).

The NDP remains the dominant party in Vancouver Island, with the support of half of decided voters (51%) and is also the first choice in Metro Vancouver (46%) and the North (54%). In the Interior, the BC Conservatives hold a slim edge over the NDP (32% to 30%), with the Liberals a close third (26%).

The New Democrats hold a four-point lead over the BC Liberals with male voters (35% to 31%). The proportion of women voters who would cast a ballot for the BC Liberals has fallen drastically to 15 per cent, eight points behind the Conservatives (23%). Among female voters, the NDP is still the most popular option (52%).

Another group where the BC Conservatives are gaining ground is voters over the age of 55. The BC Tories are now supported by 38 per cent of decided voters in this demographic, slightly ahead of the BC Liberals but still behind the NDP.

The NDP maintains an impressive retention rate, keeping almost nine-in-ten of its voters in 2009 (87%). In stark contrast, the BC Liberals are holding on to just 51 per cent of their supporters. One-in-three BC Liberal voters in 2009 (33%) are now saying they would vote for the BC Conservatives, and 14 per cent are ready to back the NDP.

Issues, Approval and Momentum

One-in-four respondents (24%, -3) believe the economy is the most important issue facing British Columbia, followed by health care (19%, -2), leadership (12%, +5), education (10%, +5), tax relief (6%, =), poverty (5%, -2) and the environment (5%, -1).

The approval rating for Premier and BC Liberals leader Christy Clark fell by eight points since January and now stands at 32 per cent. Official Opposition and NDP leader Adrian Dix remains stable (45%, =) along with Green Party leader Jane Sterk (25%, +1). The biggest gains on this indicator were observed for BC Conservative Party leader John Cummins (28%, +5), although a third of respondents (34%) are undecided about his performance.

On the preferred premier question, Dix remains in first place (25%, -1), followed by Clark (17%, -5), Cummins (12%, +4) and Sterk (3%, =). This month, the four main party leaders posted negative momentum scores, but while the difference in positive and negative reviews for Dix, Cummins and Sterk is minor (-2 for all three), the incumbent premier posted a momentum score of -49, with more than half of respondents (53%) saying their opinion of her has worsened over the past three months.

On issues, Dix and Clark are almost even on being the best person to deal with the economy (22% to 21%), but the NDP leader keeps the upper hand on health care (34% to 15%), education (33% to 17%) and crime (21% to 15%). Clark is still the preferred choice for federal/provincial relations (23%, with Dix and Cummins at 18% each) and Sterk remains the favoured leader for the environment (29%).

Analysis

Over the past 12 months, the New Democrats have slowly but steadily gained five points, and have seen Dix become both the preferred premier and the leader with the highest approval rating. In the same period, the BC Liberals have seen their support among decided voters drop by 20 points—going from first place to a tie for second—while the BC Conservatives have improved their standing by 18 points.

Following two months that included a work stoppage by teachers and the defection of long-serving BC Liberal John Van Dongen to the BC Conservatives, the governing party has fallen to its lowest level since July 2010, immediately after the harmonized sales tax (HST) came into force under Gordon Campbell. If an election were held today, the BC Liberals would receive half of the votes they received in 2009.

One third of the voters who supported the Campbell-led BC Liberals in 2009 are now backing the BC Conservatives. The party appears to be enjoying a surge in support after Van Dongen decided to join. The numbers for John Cummins are better than what he posted in January, but many British Columbians are not yet fully aware of his activities.

Full Report, Detailed Tables and Methodology (PDF)

CONTACT:

Mario Canseco, Vice President, Angus Reid Public Opinion
+877 730 3570
mario.canseco@angus-reid.com

Methodology: From March 29 to March 30, 2012, Angus Reid Public Opinion conducted an online survey among 800 randomly selected British Columbia adults who are Angus Reid Forum panellists. The margin of error—which measures sampling variability—is +/- 3.5%. The results have been statistically weighted according to the most current education, age, gender and region Census data to ensure a sample representative of the entire adult population of British Columbia. Discrepancies in or between totals are due to rounding.