(03/22/12) -

Conservatives Are First in Canada Despite Harper’s Low Momentum

Thomas Mulcair emerges as the leadership hopeful with the greatest potential to convert past Bloc and Liberal voters into NDP supporters.

The Conservative Party holds an eight-point lead over the New Democratic Party (NDP) as Canada’s official opposition is about to select a new leader, a new Angus Reid Public Opinion poll has found.

The online survey of a representative national sample also shows that nine per cent of Canadians who did not vote for the NDP in the 2011 federal election would be more likely to do so in the next ballot with Thomas Mulcair as leader.

Voting Intention

Across the country, 37 per cent of decided voters and leaners (-2 since January) would support the governing Conservative Party in the next federal election.

The New Democrats are in second place with 29 per cent (+1), followed by the Liberal Party with 21 per cent (-1), the Bloc Québécois with eight per cent (+3), and the Green Party with four per cent (-1).

The Tories are currently the most popular federal party in Alberta (56%), Manitoba and Saskatchewan (51%), British Columbia (43%) and Ontario (40%). In Quebec, the NDP is virtually tied with the Bloc (33% to 31%). This month, the Liberals have their best showing in Ontario (30%), where the NDP is now third (25%).

Two-in-five male decided voters (41%) would cast a ballot for the Conservative candidate in their riding, with the New Democrats a distant second with 29 per cent. Among women, the NDP and the Tories are practically even (35% to 34%), with the Liberals in third place (21%).

The momentum score for Stephen Harper stands at -28, with more than a third of respondents (37%) acknowledging that their opinion of the Prime Minister has worsened over the course of the past month. The best scores this month are posted by Elizabeth May of the Green Party (-4) and interim Liberal leader Bob Rae (-5). In fact, Rae’s numbers on improvement (13%) are significantly higher than those of all the other leaders.

NDP Leadership Race

Across the country, 12 per cent of respondents say they would be more likely to vote for the NDP in the next federal election if Thomas Mulcair becomes their leader. No other contender gets to double-digits on this indicator, with Peggy Nash and Brian Topp (both at 4%) barely edging Nathan Cullen and Paul Dewar (both at 3%).

Mulcair would place the NDP in a solid position in Quebec, as 34 per cent of Quebecers say they would be more likely to vote for the New Democrats with him as leader. In Atlantic Canada, at least one-in-ten voters are willing to give the NDP a second look under Topp (13%), Cullen (11%) and Mulcair (10%).

In British Columbia, seven per cent of respondents would be more likely to back the NDP with Cullen as leader. There is no discernible favourite leadership candidate in Ontario and Alberta, while Topp is the most popular choice in Manitoba and Saskatchewan (8%).

The effect of Mulcair on the national political scene is more profound when looking at the choices of respondents who did not vote for the NDP in 2011. Three-in-ten Bloc Québécois voters (31%), one-in-five Liberal Party voters (11%) and one-in-twenty Conservative voters (5%) say they would be more likely to support the NDP under Mulcair. Among Green Party voters, Nash (13%) is regarded as a more attractive option than Mulcair (8%).

Analysis

Since January, the leader who has lost the most ground on momentum is Harper, with the proportion of Canadians who say their views on him have worsened going from 30 per cent to 37 per cent. However, following two months that brought several opportunities for the opposition to grow—including the negative reaction to Bill C-30 and the public discussions about the use of misleading robocalls in the last election—the Conservatives remain in first place at the national level.

The retention rate for the governing party is the second best of the five major contenders (86%, slightly behind the Bloc’s 89%). New Democrats and Grits are holding on to more than three-in-four voters, while the Greens seem the most vulnerable at 66 per cent.

The level of support for the NDP could grow if Mulcair is chosen, with a third of Quebecers saying they would be more likely to back the New Democrats if he becomes their leader. The regional effect of other candidates is more subdued, with Cullen faring well in British Columbia.

Mulcair is also the only NDP contender who can bring a substantial proportion of Liberal voters (11%) into the NDP fold, while his current rivals all sit below the five per cent mark on this indicator.

Full Report, Detailed Tables and Methodology (PDF)

CONTACT:

Jaideep Mukerji, Vice President, Angus Reid Public Opinion
+514 409 0462
jaideep.mukerji@angus-reid.com

Methodology: From March 20 to March 21, 2012, Angus Reid Public Opinion conducted an online survey among 1,004 randomly selected Canadian adults who are Angus Reid Forum panellists. The margin of error—which measures sampling variability—is +/- 3.1%, 19 times out of 20. The results have been statistically weighted according to the most current education, age, gender and region Census data to ensure a sample representative of the entire adult population of Canada. Discrepancies in or between totals are due to rounding.