(12/12/11) -

Romney and Gingrich Are Top Choices for Republicans Before 2012 Election

Herman Cain falls behind after his campaign is suspended, while there is little movement for Ron Paul and Rick Perry.

With just a few weeks left before the United States presidential primaries and caucuses begin, two Republican Party contenders enter the race as favourites, a new Angus Reid Public Opinion poll has found.

The online survey of a representative sample of 1,005 American adults asked respondents whether nine declared GOP contenders would be good or bad presidents.

Across the United States, 30 per cent of respondents (+2 since November) think former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney would make a good head of state, followed by former House Speaker Newt Gingrich (25%, +3), and Texas Congressman Ron Paul (21%, =).

Support is lower for Texas Governor Rick Perry (17%), businessman Herman Cain (16%), Minnesota Congresswoman Michelle Bachmann (15%), former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum (11%), former Utah Governor Jon Huntsman Jr. (9%) and former New Mexico Governor Gary Johnson (5%).

The two frontrunners are held in high regard by Republicans, with practically half of these respondents saying that either Romney (47%) or Gingrich (46%) would make a good president. Perry is a distant third on this question with 33 per cent, followed by Cain with 29 per cent, Paul with 25 per cent and Bachmann with 24 per cent.

The biggest change since last month is the 13-point drop for Cain, who had announced the “suspension” of his campaign before this survey was conducted. Bachmann saw her standing fall by four points in a month.

Candidate Traits

Respondents to this survey were asked to select up to six words that may describe three of the GOP presidential contenders. The results of this question among Republican Party supporters are:

Mitt Romney – Intelligent (52%), strong (31%), efficient (29%), honest (28%), down to earth (27%), in-touch (25%), open (also 25%)
Newt Gingrich – Intelligent (51%), strong (36%), efficient (32%), honest (27%), in touch (25%), arrogant (24%), open (24%).
Rick Perry – Down to earth (29%), intelligent (27%), honest (23%), strong (22%), open (21%), compassionate (19%).

Since November, Romney gained three points on intelligence, while Perry lost seven points on the same indicator.

Analysis

Newt Gingrich has become the new challenger to Mitt Romney as the primary season is about to begin. The former House Speaker does not post impressive numbers among Independents and Democrats, but has managed steady growth on being seen as “presidential material” by Republicans. Romney increased his standing among GOP supporters by three points, as Cain’s exit and Perry’s debate troubles appear to be turning the race into a two-man contest.

Full Report, Detailed Tables and Methodology (PDF)

CONTACT:

Mario Canseco, Vice President, Angus Reid Public Opinion
+877 730 3570
mario.canseco@angus-reid.com

Methodology: From December 5 to December 6, 2011, Angus Reid Public Opinion conducted an online survey among 1,005 randomly selected American adults who are Springboard America panelists. The margin of error—which measures sampling variability—is +/- 3.1%. The results have been statistically weighted according to the most current education, age, gender and region data to ensure samples representative of the entire adult population of the United States. Discrepancies in or between totals are due to rounding.