(11/08/11) -

Cain and Gingrich Gain as Republicans Review Choices for 2012 Election

The proportion of GOP voters who think Rick Perry and Michele Bachmann would be “good presidents” has dropped markedly since September.

The race for the Republican Party’s presidential nomination in 2012 has shifted, as two contenders have significantly improved their standing in the past few weeks, while two others appear to have floundered, a new Angus Reid Public Opinion poll has found.

The online survey of a representative sample of 1,004 American adults asked respondents whether nine declared GOP contenders would be good or bad presidents.

Across the United States, 28 per cent of respondents (+5 since September) think former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney would make a good head of state, followed by businessman Herman Cain (23%, +13), former House Speaker Newt Gingrich (22%, +10), and Texas Congressman Ron Paul (21%, +1).

Support was lower for Texas Governor Rick Perry (18%), Minnesota Congresswoman Michelle Bachmann (17%), former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum (10%), former Utah Governor Jon Huntsman Jr. (9%) and former New Mexico Governor Gary Johnson (5%).

Romney is ahead of his rivals among male respondents in the United States (33%, with Cain second at 28%), female respondents (23%, with Gingrich second at 18%), and Independents (29%). In addition, one-in-five Democrats (20%) think Romney would make a good president.

Among Republicans, the numbers have shifted dramatically from the previous Angus Reid Public Opinion survey conducted in September. Romney is now tied for first place with Gingrich (both with 44%), followed closely by Cain with 42 per cent.

Gingrich has improved his standing on this question by 17 points in two months, while Cain is up 20 points since September. Conversely, Perry dropped 11 points to fall to fourth place (33%), slightly ahead of Bachmann, who lost 12 points (28%). There is little movement for the remaining four contenders.

Candidate Traits

Respondents to this survey were asked to select up to six words that may describe three of the GOP presidential contenders. The results of this question among Republican Party supporters are:

Mitt Romney – Intelligent (49%), strong (35%), efficient (31%), down to earth (27%), honest (26%), compassionate (21%) and in touch (also 21%).
Herman Cain – Intelligent (48%), down to earth (39%), strong (36%), honest (31%), efficient (28%), in touch (25%).
Rick Perry – Intelligent (34%), strong (30%), down to earth (30%), honest (27%), efficient (24%), in touch (23%).

Romney and Cain get higher marks on intelligence than Perry, and are also seen as both stronger and more efficient than the Texas Governor. Perry and Cain are regarded as more open than Romney, while Cain is definitely viewed as the most down to earth contender.

Analysis

The race for the 2012 Republican Presidential nomination has had peaks and valleys for many contenders. This month’s survey shows that, while Mitt Romney is not being seen as “presidential material” by a larger proportion of Americans and GOP voters than two months ago, he maintains the upper hand on specific character traits, as well as the lead among many key demographics.

The biggest gainers are Cain and Gingrich, who managed double-digit increases on the “good president” question among both all Americans and Republican Party supporters. The survey was conducted after the allegations of “inappropriate behavior” by Cain during his tenure at the National Restaurant Association came to light—a fact that might explain his unusually high national scores on being dishonest (24%) and secretive (20%). Gingrich has clearly connected with the base, something that appeared difficult to do after his particularly dismal showing in the September poll.

For Perry, the situation is dire. The first thing that comes to mind when Americans are asked about the Texas Governor is arrogance (28%), and he trails Romney and Cain badly on positive traits like intelligence and efficiency. This month, only a third of Republicans think Perry would be a good president, an 11-point drop since September. Bachmann also saw her numbers drop severely, and is now closer to Ron Paul in the middle of the pack than to the new frontrunners.

Full Report, Detailed Tables and Methodology (PDF)

CONTACT:

Mario Canseco, Vice President, Angus Reid Public Opinion
+877 730 3570
mario.canseco@angus-reid.com

Methodology: From November 2 to November 3, 2011, Angus Reid Public Opinion conducted an online survey among 1,004 randomly selected American adults who are Springboard America panelists. The margin of error—which measures sampling variability—is +/- 3.1%. The results have been statistically weighted according to the most current education, age, gender and region data to ensure samples representative of the entire adult population of the United States. Discrepancies in or between totals are due to rounding.