(11/03/11) -

New Democratic Party Takes First Place in British Columbia

Christy Clark is still the preferred premier for most respondents, but the approval rating for Adrian Dix is high.

The opposition New Democratic Party (NDP) has become the most popular option for voters in British Columbia, a new Angus Reid Public Opinion poll has found.

The online survey of a representative provincial sample of 803 British Columbian adults also shows that the approval rating for the province’s main party leaders is practically the same.

Political Scene

Across British Columbia, 40 per cent of decided voters and leaners (+2 since March) say they will support the NDP candidate in their constituency in the next provincial election. The New Democrats had not been completely alone in first place since a survey conducted exactly one year ago, before the announcement of Gordon Campbell’s resignation as premier.

The governing BC Liberals are now second with 31 per cent (-12). The BC Conservatives have clearly benefitted from the drop in support for the incumbent party, and have reached the highest level ever recorded in an Angus Reid Public Opinion poll (18%, +13). The BC Greens are fourth with eight per cent (-2).

The NDP maintains sizeable leads over the BC Liberals in Metro Vancouver and Vancouver Island. In the Interior and the North, one-in-five decided voters (20%) are supporting the BC Tories, leading to a virtual tie for first place between New Democrats and Liberals.

While men are virtually split on which one of the two main parties they would vote for (BC Liberals 36%, BC NDP 35%), there is a large gap among women, with 45 per cent of female respondents supporting the NDP, and only 26 per cent backing the BC Liberals. The NDP is also ahead among respondents aged 18-to-34 and those aged 35-to-54, but practically tied with the BC Liberals among respondents over the age of 55.

The New Democrats are holding on to 84 per cent of the voters that supported the party in the 2009 provincial election, while the BC Liberals are only keeping two thirds of their past voters (67%). In fact, one-in-five BC Liberals voters in 2009 (21%) are currently supporting the BC Conservatives.

Issues, Approval and Momentum

The economy is regarded as the most important issue facing British Columbia by 29 per cent of respondents, followed by health care (17%), leadership (8%), poverty (also 8%) and tax relief (7%).

The approval rating for Premier and BC Liberals leader Christy Clark stands at 39 per cent. This represents a three-point drop since a survey conducted in August. Official Opposition and NDP leader Adrian Dix holds the approval of two-in-five respondents (40%). The numbers are decidedly lower for Green Party leader Jane Sterk (21%) and BC Conservative Party leader John Cummins (19%).

On the preferred premier question, Clark holds a six-point advantage over Dix (25% to 19%), with Cummins and Sterk in single digits. Dix is the only leader to post a positive momentum score (+1), while Cummins (-4), Sterk (-7) and Clark (-27) all had negative numbers.

Clark is regarded as the best of the four party leaders to handle the economy (28%) and federal/provincial relations (also 28%). Dix is seen as the most capable politician to deal with health care (31%). Sterk edges every other rival on the environment (24%), and Clark and Dix are virtually tied on education (27% to 26%). On crime, an issue that the BC Liberals usually dominate, Clark is ahead of Dix by four points (20% to 16%), but Cummins gets his best showing (15%).

Analysis

One year after the resignation of Gordon Campbell, the BC Liberals face a new challenge. Premier Clark is still regarded as the best person to head the government, and is preferred over Dix and Cummins on the economy—which is identified as the top issue facing British Columbia. However, Clark’s momentum score was the lowest one of all politicians, and her party has seen a sizeable drop in support since March.

Dix has positioned himself as a viable alternative on health care and, to a lesser extent, on education—both issues where previous NDP leaders have held the upper hand over the BC Liberals. Dix has also managed to post an approval rating that is considerably higher than the best numbers of his predecessor, Carole James. It is important to note that, while the NDP is once again ahead of the BC Liberals, it has not yet reached the heights it enjoyed in the final weeks of Campbell’s tenure.

The BC Conservatives have increased their standing dramatically, particularly in the Southern Interior and the North. The Tories have attracted a large proportion of former BC Liberal supporters, effectively splitting the centre-right vote, despite the fact that many British Columbians either do not know John Cummins, or have not made up their minds about him.

Full Report, Detailed Tables and Methodology (PDF)

CONTACT:

Mario Canseco, Vice President, Angus Reid Public Opinion
+877 730 3570
mario.canseco@angus-reid.com

Methodology: From October 31 to November 1, 2011, Angus Reid Public Opinion conducted an online survey among 803 randomly selected British Columbia adults who are Angus Reid Forum panellists. The margin of error—which measures sampling variability—is +/- 3.5%. The results have been statistically weighted according to the most current education, age, gender and region Census data to ensure a sample representative of the entire adult population of British Columbia. Discrepancies in or between totals are due to rounding.