(09/17/11) -

Tory Lead Down to Four Points as Three-Party Race Develops in Ontario

Three-in-four Progressive Conservative voters say they will not change their minds before election day.

The Progressive Conservative Party remains ahead as Ontario’s provincial campaign continues, a new Angus Reid Public Opinion poll conducted in partnership with the Toronto Star has found.

In the online survey of a representative sample of 1,001 Ontario adults, 36 per cent of decided voters and leaners (-2 since late August) would cast a ballot for the Progressive Conservative candidate in their riding.

The governing Liberal Party is second with 32 per cent (+1), followed by the provincial New Democratic Party (NDP) with 26 per cent (+2), and the Green Party with six per cent (=).

The Progressive Conservatives are dominating in Southwest Ontario and Eastern Ontario, while the governing Liberals get their best showing in the 905 region. The New Democrats have increased their standing in the 416 region, and are the most popular party in Hamilton/Niagara and Northern Ontario.

Among male voters, the Tory advantage over the Grits has grown from five points to eight (41% to 33%). Among women, there is a clear three-party race, with practically a third of voters expressing a preference for each one of the three main parties. The NDP is now the first choice for respondents aged 18-to-34, while the Progressive Conservatives have considerable leads among respondents aged 35-to-54 and those over the age of 55.

The Progressive Conservatives continue to have the best retention rate among all contending parties, keeping the support of 84 per cent of the voters who backed the party in the 2007 election. The NDP’s retention rate is 79 per cent, while the Liberals hold on to two thirds of their 2007 voters (66%) and the Greens are below the 50 per cent mark (43%).

While three-in-four Progressive Conservative voters (74%) say they will definitely support this party in next month’s election, the proportion of definite Liberal and NDP voters stands 56 per cent.

Issues, Approval and Momentum

The economy (27%) remains the most important issue for Ontarians, followed by unemployment (16%), health care (15%), tax relief (11%) and government spending (9%).

NDP leader Andrea Horwath continues to post the best approval rating (42%, +3 since late August), followed by Progressive Conservative leader Tim Hudak (36%, +1), Premier and Liberal Party leader Dalton McGuinty (35%, +2), and Green Party leader Mike Schreiner (18%, +2).

Horwath is also the only leader with a positive momentum score (+14). Schreiner (-2), Hudak (-15) and McGuinty (-31) are unable to match her numbers.

On the Best Premier question, Hudak (24%) is virtually tied with McGuinty (23%), with Horwath in third place (17%). Hudak is seen as the best person to tackle crime, the economy, the deficit and federal/provincial relations, while McGuinty leads in health care and education, and Schreiner on the environment. Horwath gets her best rating on health care, but is still behind McGuinty and Hudak.

Three-in-five Ontarians (60%) believe it is time for a different provincial party should be elected into power, while one-in-four (24%) think the Liberal Party should be re-elected.

Immigration

McGuinty recently introduced an election plan called “No Skills Left Behind” that would give business tax credits of up to $10,000 for training programs for 1,200 recent Canadian citizens in high skill sectors like engineering and architecture.

A majority of Ontarians (64%) believe the program creates an unequal and unfair environment for those who are not foreign workers and trying to find employment, while one-in-four (23%) think providing a tax incentive to hire high skilled new Canadians addresses a core issue in helping immigrants obtain their first job.

Practically half of Ontarians (48%) think immigration is having a negative effect in Canada, and almost as many (46%) think the number of legal immigrants who are allowed to relocate in Canada should decrease.

Analysis

With less than three weeks left until election day, the race is too close to call. None of the three main parties is currently at a comfortable position to form a government on their own. The NDP has continued to gain support, and has become a factor in the City of Toronto. However, Horwath continues to trail Hudak and McGuinty as a preferred head of government for Ontarians.

Two-in-five respondents regard either the economy or unemployment as the most important topics facing the province, with other financial matters—such as tax relief—also gaining traction. McGuinty’s “No Skills Left Behind” proposal has not resonated beyond the base, and Ontarians are showing a high degree of skepticism on the topic of immigration.

Full Report, Detailed Tables and Methodology (PDF)

CONTACT:

Jaideep Mukerji, Vice President, Angus Reid Public Opinion
+514 409 0462
jaideep.mukerji@angus-reid.com

Methodology: From September 13 to September 15, 2011, Angus Reid Public Opinion conducted an online survey among 1,001 randomly selected Ontario adults who are Angus Reid Forum panellists. The margin of error—which measures sampling variability—is +/- 3.1%, 19 times out of 20. The results have been statistically weighted according to the most current education, age, gender and region Census data to ensure a sample representative of the entire adult population of Ontario. Discrepancies in or between totals are due to rounding.