(09/15/11) -

Romney and Perry Seen as Best Presidential Choices for GOP in 2012

Independent voters like Ron Paul more than any other Republican contender.

Two prospective Republican Party presidential contenders are currently ahead of their rivals as Americans ponder who would serve well in the White House, a new Angus Reid Public Opinion poll has found.

The online survey of a representative sample of 1,787 American adults asked respondents whether nine declared GOP contenders—as well as former vice-presidential nominee Sarah Palin—would be good or bad presidents.

Across the United States, 23 per cent of respondents think former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney would make a good president, followed by Texas Governor Rick Perry with 21 per cent, and Texas Congressman Ron Paul with 20 per cent.

Support was lower for Minnesota Congresswoman Michelle Bachmann (18%), Palin (also at 18%), former House Speaker Newt Gingrich (12%) and businessman Herman Cain (10%), while three other candidates were in single digits: former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum (8%), former Utah Governor Jon Huntsman Jr. (6%) and former New Mexico Governor Gary Johnson (4%).

Paul was the top choice among the ten Republicans for men (25%, closely followed by Romney and Perry with 24% each) while Romney had the highest level of support among women (22%, followed by Palin with 18% and Perry with 17%).

Among Republicans, four candidates are ahead of the pack, with 44 per cent saying that Perry would make a “good president”. Romney is in second place among GOP voters with 42 per cent, followed by Palin with 41 per cent, and Bachmann with 40 per cent. No other contender is regarded as a future “good president” by more than a third of Republicans.

It is important to note that the proportion of Independents who believe Paul would make a “good president” stands at 26 per cent, the highest for any prospective Republican nominee. Only Romney (23%) and Perry (20%) come close to matching the Texas Congressman among Independents.

Analysis

Since an Angus Reid Public Opinion survey conducted in July 2010, the one contender who has lost the most ground is Newt Gingrich, falling five points among all respondents and 15 points among Republican voters. Conversely, Ron Paul has gained six points among all Americans and 11 points among GOP voters.

Despite her absence from recent debates and the lack of an official declaration, Sarah Palin is still regarded as a good choice for two-in-five Republicans. However, she is the only one of the ten people tested who is seen as a “bad president” by more than half of Americans.

Mitt Romney has maintained a steady level of support, while Rick Perry and Michelle Bachmann are connecting with the base. Some Independents appear to have developed a fondness for Paul, but his numbers among Republicans are closer to Herman Cain and Gingrich than to the four frontrunners.

Full Report, Detailed Tables and Methodology (PDF)

CONTACT:

Mario Canseco, Vice President, Angus Reid Public Opinion
+877 730 3570
mario.canseco@angus-reid.com

Methodology: From September 1 to September 2, 2011, Angus Reid Public Opinion conducted an online survey among 1,787 randomly selected American adults who are Springboard America panelists. The margin of error—which measures sampling variability—is +/- 2.3%. The results have been statistically weighted according to the most current education, age, gender and region data to ensure samples representative of the entire adult population of the United States. Discrepancies in or between totals are due to rounding.