(08/31/11) -

Progressive Conservatives Lead Liberals by Seven Points in Ontario

Governing Grits ahead in the 416 region, but Tories dominating in other areas of the province.

The Progressive Conservative Party holds the lead in the early stages of Ontario’s provincial campaign, a new Angus Reid Public Opinion poll conducted in partnership with the Toronto Star has found.

In the online survey of a representative sample of 1,002 Ontario adults, 38 per cent of decided voters and leaners would cast a ballot for the Progressive Conservative candidate in their riding.

The governing Liberal Party is second with 31 per cent, followed by the provincial New Democratic Party (NDP) with 24 per cent, and the Green Party with six per cent.

The Liberals are leading in the 416 area, but are trailing the Tories in all other regions. At least two-in-five decided voters would support the Progressive Conservatives in the 905 area, Southwest Ontario and Eastern Ontario.

Among male voters, the Tories hold a five-point lead over the Grits (39% to 34%). Female voters are also primarily supporting the Progressive Conservatives (36%), but there is a close race for second place, with 28 per cent of women supporting the Liberals, and 27 per cent backing the NDP.

A three-way race is developing among voters aged 18-to-34, but the Progressive Conservatives are clearly ahead among Ontarians aged 35-to-54 and those over the age of 55.

The Progressive Conservatives are holding on to an impressive 92 per cent of the voters who supported the party in the 2007 election, while the NDP keeps four-in-five of its voters in the last provincial ballot (80%). The retention rates are lower for the Liberals (72%) and the Greens (57%). In fact, one-in-four 2007 Liberal voters are now saying they would cast a ballot for either the Progressive Conservatives (14%) or the NDP (12%).

Analysis

Since the 2007 election, the Liberals are down 11 points, while both the Progressive Conservatives and the New Democrats have made substantial gains. Compared to a survey conducted by Angus Reid Public Opinion in September 2010, the Progressive Conservatives have dropped slightly, while the Liberals and NDP are up.

Full Report, Detailed Tables and Methodology (PDF)

CONTACT:

Jaideep Mukerji, Vice President, Angus Reid Public Opinion
+514 409 0462
jaideep.mukerji@angus-reid.com

Methodology: From August 25 to August 28, 2011, Angus Reid Public Opinion conducted an online survey among 1,002 randomly selected Ontario adults who are Angus Reid Forum panellists. The margin of error—which measures sampling variability—is +/- 3.1%, 19 times out of 20. The results have been statistically weighted according to the most current education, age, gender and region Census data to ensure a sample representative of the entire adult population of Ontario. Discrepancies in or between totals are due to rounding.