(08/10/11) -

Conservatives Ahead, Turmel Debate Does Not Affect the NDP in Canada

While 45 per cent of Canadians think the NDP should replace Turmel as interim leader, only 29 per cent of NDP voters concur.

The Conservative Party remains popular three months after its election victory, and the New Democratic Party (NDP) has not lost ground since the appointment of a new interim leader, a new Angus Reid Public Opinion poll conducted in partnership with the Toronto Star has found.

In the online survey of a representative national sample, 39 per cent of decided voters and leaners would support the governing Tories in the next federal election.

The official opposition NDP is second with 31 per cent, followed by the Liberal Party with 19 per cent, the Bloc Québécois with six per cent, and the Green Party with four per cent. The results of this survey closely mirror the outcome of the May 2011 federal election.

The Conservatives are leading in their traditional stronghold of Alberta (75%) and maintain a large advantage over their rivals in Ontario (44%). The NDP is virtually tied with the Tories in British Columbia. The Liberals have their best showing in Ontario (26%, tied with the NDP).

Three parties—the Conservatives, the NDP and the Bloc—are holding on to at least four-in-five voters who supported them in the May 2011 election. The retention rate is lower for the Liberals (70%) and the Greens (65%).

Approval Ratings and Momentum

Across the country, 40 per cent of Canadians approve of the way Prime Minister and Conservative Party leader Stephen Harper is doing his job. Green leader Elizabeth May gets a positive assessment from 28 per cent of Canadians.

The approval rating for the three interim leaders is lower: Liberal Bob Rae at 23 per cent, the NDP’s Nycole Turmel at 22 per cent, and the Bloc’s Vivian Barbot at five per cent.

The five federal party leaders posted a negative momentum score this month, with May (-4) and Rae (-6) outperforming Harper (-10), Turmel (-12) and Barbot (-16). The image of the NDP has not suffered, as the party is the only one that does not post a negative momentum score this month.

The Turmel Appointment

Overall, 43 per cent of Canadians have been following news stories related to interim NDP leader Turmel “very closely” or “moderately closely.” Two-in-five respondents (41%) are “very concerned” or “moderately concerned” that Turmel was a member of the federal Bloc Québécois and the provincial Québec Solidaire party, while half (51%) are “not too concerned” or “not concerned at all.”

In Quebec, unworried respondents outnumber those who are troubled by a 2-to-1 margin (64% to 30%). Only 29 per cent of people who voted for the NDP in the last federal election are preoccupied with the Turmel matter, while 67 per cent are not concerned.
Across the country, 45 per cent of respondents think the NDP should “definitely” or “probably” replace Turmel as interim leader, while 35 per cent disagree with this course of action. However, only 34 per cent of Quebecers and 29 per cent of NDP voters believe a change at the helm of the official opposition is necessary.

Analysis

The federal parties are maintaining the same level of support they had in the last election, despite having to endure three leadership changes. Prime Minister Harper’s approval rating has improved since the campaign, and Rae is posting better numbers than those of his two predecessors: Michael Ignatieff and Stéphane Dion. Barbot is not well known, and May has been connecting better with Canadians, even though many respondents are not ready to issue an opinion on her performance.

The Turmel controversy seems to be affecting Canadians who are currently not interested in supporting the NDP, and therefore has not had an immediate effect on the fortunes of the official opposition. The level of support for the NDP remains high, and although Turmel is not particularly liked, the level of animosity towards her appointment is not leading the base to question her role as Jack Layton’s interim replacement.

Full Report, Detailed Tables and Methodology (PDF)

CONTACT:

Mario Canseco, Vice President, Angus Reid Public Opinion
+877 730 3570
mario.canseco@angus-reid.com

Methodology: From August 8 to August 9, 2011, Angus Reid Public Opinion conducted an online survey among 1,005 randomly selected Canadian adults who are Angus Reid Forum panellists. The margin of error—which measures sampling variability—is +/- 3.1%, 19 times out of 20. The results have been statistically weighted according to the most current education, age, gender and region Census data to ensure a sample representative of the entire adult population of Canada. Discrepancies in or between totals are due to rounding.