(05/07/11) -

Canadian Liberal Voters Ready to Unite the Left, But New Democrats Reserved

Justin Trudeau is regarded as a good choice to lead the Liberals by almost half of Canadians and a majority of Grit voters.

Two thirds of Canadians who voted for the Liberal Party in the last federal election would welcome a merger with the New Democratic Party (NDP), a new Angus Reid Public Opinion poll conducted in partnership with the Toronto Star has found.

Another online survey of a representative national sample looks at who would be the best choice to lead the federal Liberal Party.

A United Centre-Left

Across the country, 36 per cent of respondents say they would approve of a merger between the New Democratic Party (NDP) and the Liberal Party. Liberal voters (65%) are clearly more enthused about this prospect than New Democrat voters (46%).

The notion of a merged party featuring the NDP and the Green Party split views across the country, with 43 per cent of respondents approving, and 42 per cent disapproving. It is important to note that both NDP voters (59%) and Green voters (56%) find this idea appealing.

Conversely, a merger of Liberals and Greens does not resonate. Only one-in-four Canadians (26%) would approve of this combination. Liberals are divided on this idea (Approve 47%, Disapprove 45%) while three-in-five Greens (60%) reject it.

Finally, the suggestion of a broad movement that would see the NDP, Liberals and Greens forming a single party is attractive to one third of Canadians (32%). Liberals (56%) and Greens (55%) are more likely to welcome this scenario than New Democrats (55%). This merger of three parties is particularly unattractive to Conservative voters.

Future of the Liberal Party

Following the announced resignation of Michael Ignatieff as leader of the Liberal Party, Quebec MP Justin Trudeau has emerged as a popular choice to replace him. Across the country, almost half of respondents (48%) believe Trudeau would be a good choice to lead the Grits. Three-in-five Canadians who voted for the Liberals in this month’s federal election (63%) also regard Trudeau as a good choice.

The level of support for five other Liberal politicians is decidedly lower. Former Ontario Premier Bob Rae is second to Trudeau (22% in Canada, 31% among Liberals), followed by former Finance Minister John Manley (17% in Canada, 21% among Liberals), 2006 leadership candidate Gerard Kennedy (12% in Canada, 21% among Liberals), New Brunswick MP Dominic LeBlanc (9% in Canada, 18% among Liberals), and former Justice Minister Martin Cauchon (6% in Canada, 8% among Liberals).

Analysis

At the national level, a merger of the New Democratic Party (NDP) and the Green Party is regarded as a good option. Support is also prevalent among people who voted for either of these two parties in the election. However, the much discussed union of New Democrats and Liberals—which would echo the “unite the right” movement that led to the creation of the current Conservative Party—does not yield similar results. Liberals support the merger by a 2-to-1 margin, but NDP voters are evenly split.

A united Liberal-Green party elicits a lukewarm response across the country. The amalgamation of the three so-called “progressive” parties is attractive to Liberals and Greens, but half of New Democrats and seven-in-ten Tories decry it. With Jack Layton heading to Stornoway, New Democrats are clearly not as interested in uniting the left.

Justin Trudeau, whose father Pierre served as Liberal leader from 1968 to 1984, is clearly well positioned to launch a leadership bid if and when the guidelines are set. Aided by name recognition, and the fact that he retained his seat in the tough riding of Papineau in Quebec, Trudeau has a sizeable lead when compared against other politicians who, in the past, have expressed interest in leading the Grits.

Full Report, Detailed Tables and Methodology (PDF)

CONTACT:

Jaideep Mukerji, Vice President, Angus Reid Public Opinion
+514 409 0462
jaideep.mukerji@angus-reid.com

Methodology: This release includes the results from two different surveys: Centre-Left Merger – From May 3 to May 4, 2011, Angus Reid Public Opinion conducted an online survey among 1,019 randomly selected Canadian adults who are Angus Reid Forum panellists. Liberal Party Leader – From May 5 to May 6, 2011, Angus Reid Public Opinion conducted an online survey among 1,001 randomly selected Canadian adults who are Angus Reid Forum panellists. The margin of error—which measures sampling variability—is +/- 3.1% for both samples, 19 times out of 20. The results have been statistically weighted according to the most current education, age, gender and region Census data to ensure a sample representative of the entire adult population of Canada. Discrepancies in or between totals are due to rounding.
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