Conservatives and NDP Gain in Canada, as Liberals Fall Below 20% Mark
New Democrats increase their standing in Quebec and British Columbia, and move to second place in Ontario.
The Poll Archive RSS
(04/30/11) -
Canadians head to the final weekend of the federal campaign on the verge of a monumental shift in the country’s political history, a new Angus Reid Public Opinion poll conducted in partnership with the Toronto Star and La Presse has found.
In the online survey of a representative national sample, 37 per cent of absolutely certain voters (+2 since earlier this week) would support the governing Conservative Party in the May 2 federal election.
The New Democratic Party (NDP) continues to gain momentum and now has the support of a third of voters (33%, +3), followed by the Liberal Party with 19 per cent (-3), the Bloc Québécois with six per cent (-1), and the Green Party with four per cent (-1).
The Conservatives are roughly at the same level of support they had in the 2008 federal race, with the NDP poised to improve its standing by 15 points. The Liberals, the Bloc and the Greens are all behind their 2008 totals.
A gender gap appears to be developing among the top two parties, with the Tories holding the upper hand among male voters (39% to 31%) and the New Democrats becoming the preferred choice for female voters (37% to 34%).
The NDP has expanded its support among decided voters aged 18-to-34 (41%), while two-in-five ofg those aged 35-to-54 (39%) and over the age of 55 (41%) would cast a ballot for the Tories.
The Conservatives continue to post an impressive retention rate, keeping 82 per cent of their voters in the 2008 federal election. The proportion of electors who are sticking by the New Democrats has increased to 85 per cent. The Bloc holds a lower retention rate at 62 per cent. The Liberal Party is currently holding on to slightly more than half of the voters who supported the Stéphane Dion-led party in 2008 (57%).
The NDP has increased its proportion of committed voters to 75 per cent, putting it in tune with the Liberals (74%). Higher proportion of Canadians who have decided which party to support say they will not change their mind about voting for the Conservatives (83%) and the Bloc (86%).
Approval, Momentum and Preferred Prime Minister
The NDP surge is closely tied to the popularity of Jack Layton, who continues to hold the highest approval rating among the five federal party leaders (50%). One third of respondents (34%, -2) are satisfied with the way Prime Minister and Conservative Party leader Stephen Harper is handling his duties. Green leader Elizabeth May (22%, -3), Liberal leader Michael Ignatieff (19%, -2) and Bloc Québécois leader Gilles Duceppe (12%, -1) hold lower numbers.
Layton’s momentum score remains impressive at +40, with half of Canadians (50%) saying that they now have an improved opinion of the NDP leader. The remaining contenders all posted negative momentum scores (-5 for May, -26 for Harper, -31 for Duceppe, -32 for Ignatieff).
Harper is now statistically tied with Layton in the preferred Prime Minister question (31% to 29%), with Ignatieff still at 11 per cent.
Issues
For the past three surveys, there has been very little movement on this question. Harper remains the best choice for handling the economy (38%) and crime (37%), and Layton is ahead of his rivals as the best person to handle health care (41%, +3) and ethics and accountability (32%). May is still regarded as the best environmental steward (33%).
Conservative Majority
Despite the fluctuations in the voting numbers, the views of Canadians on this question remain remarkably stable. Three-in-ten (29%) think the Conservative government has performed well, and deserves a majority in the House of Commons after the May 2 election. However, a majority of respondents would either grant a minority mandate to the Tories (15%) or would rather have a different party forming the government (44%).
Strategic Voting
About three-in-ten Canadians (30%) say they definitely or probably would consider voting for a party they dislike to force the defeat of a specific candidate in their riding. Liberal voters (49%) and NDP voters (36%) are more likely to partake in this practice than Conservatives (17%).
Also, more than a third of Canadians (36%) are considering voting strategically in order to reduce the chances of a specific party forming the government, even if it means casting a ballot for a candidate they dislike. More than half of Liberals (55%) and more than two-in-five NDP supporters (44%) are pondering this option.
Election Outcomes
Overall, none of four possible election outcomes gets the endorsement of a majority of Canadians. Two-in-five (39%) would be content with a Conservative majority after May 2, but more than four-in-five supporters of current opposition parties diverge. A similar proportion of Canadians (37%) would also be satisfied with a Conservative minority government, if the Tories win more seats than any other single party in the House of Commons.
The idea of a coalition government featuring the Liberals and the NDP, if these two parties have more combined seats than the Tories, is appealing to 42 per cent of Canadians. Grit (78%) and NDP (62%) supporters like this scenario, but four-in-five Tories reject it. By far, the least popular option continues to be a Liberal-NDP coalition government buttressed by the Bloc (32%). Supporters of the sovereignist party (65%) and the Liberals (55%) are more likely to endorse this notion than New Democrats (45%).
Analysis
The NDP’s ascendance to second place in the federal political scene continues, buoyed by a noticeable jump in Quebec and British Columbia, and some gains in Ontario. Jack Layton continues to be the driving force behind this shift, keeping the best approval rating and posting an impressive momentum score as the campaign proceeds to its final weekend
Despite this surge, the Conservatives remain in first place nationally, and hold steady in their traditional areas of support. The NDP’s gains in BC appear to come at the expense of the Liberals and the Greens. The situation is more ominous for the remaining three parties who are below their 2008 totals. The Liberal Party, now backed by only about one-in-five decided voters, could reach a historic low on election day.
Full Report, Detailed Tables and Methodology (PDF)
CONTACT:
Jaideep Mukerji, Vice President, Angus Reid Public Opinion
+514 409 0462
jaideep.mukerji@angus-reid.com
Methodology: From April 28 to April 29, 2011, Angus Reid Public Opinion conducted an online survey among 3,003 randomly selected Canadian adults who are Angus Reid Forum panellists, including 2,197 absolutely certain voters. The margin of error—which measures sampling variability—is +/- 1.8% for the entire sample of Canadians, and +/- 2.2% for the sub-sample of absolutely certain voters, 19 times out of 20. The results have been statistically weighted according to the most current education, age, gender and region Census data to ensure a sample representative of the entire adult population of Canada. Discrepancies in or between totals are due to rounding.
