Unique second-by-second analysis of exchanges and closing statements shows that the public is interested and happy to learn about policy ideas, and becomes annoyed and disturbed when the leaders attack each other.
A unique analysis of the reactions of Canadians to the English debate shows that the primary response to the exchanges of the four federal party leaders was annoyance, a new Angus Reid Public Opinion poll conducted in partnership with the Toronto Star has found.
The online survey of a representative sample of 1,075 English speaking Canadians was conducted using Vision Critical’s proprietary ReactionPlus tool—a web-based media screening platform designed to allow researchers to capture responses to audio and video content in greater depth than ever before.
Instead of relying on conventional dials where respondents merely like or dislike what they hear and see, ReactionPlus tracks emotional reactions as they happen, on a second-by-second basis, allowing for a profound examination of audience responses to drivers such as boredom, confusion, annoyance and intrigue.
In this Angus Reid Public Opinion poll, four clips were played to respondents, who then were asked to report which of ten different feelings they experienced as they watched the content. After watching each clip, respondents also answered questions related to the performance and believability of the leaders, as well as their views on specific leadership traits.
Overall Assessment
The primary reaction of Canadians to the English debate was annoyance. Certain feelings, such as engagement, excitement, happiness and even interest, barely registered. The level of annoyance grew markedly when the leaders attacked each other, and respondents reacted more favourably to the leaders when concrete policy statements were made, particularly in the areas of the economy, health care and education.
First Exchange – Discussions on a Coalition in 2004
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By a large margin, respondents were mostly annoyed, but many were also disturbed, interested and bored. The level of annoyance reached its peak during the interventions of Bloc Québécois leader Gilles Duceppe, but the reaction to Liberal leader Michael Ignatieff’s responses was also mostly negative.
The level of interest was high when Prime Minister and Conservative leader Stephen Harper provided his own version of events. However, New Democratic Party (NDP) leader Jack Layton clearly scored high on happiness, with his interjections on the will of voters and his views on Ignatieff’s role in propping up the Conservative minority government.
Layton was seen as the best performer in this exchange (45%), and also scored higher than his rivals on believability (38%).
Second Exchange – Discussions on a Coalition in 2011
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Once again, annoyance was the primary emotion expressed by respondents to the survey, but boredom, interest and disturbance also registered high on the scale. The leaders of the country’s two most popular parties remain polarizing figures, with large portions of respondents feeling annoyed and disturbed depending on whether Harper or Ignatieff is speaking.
Interest was particularly high during three moments of this debate exchange: when Harper expressed his hope for a Conservative majority government, when Ignatieff argued that the election is taking place because the Prime Minister did not tell Parliament the truth, and when the Liberal leader expressed desire to listen to other people’s ideas.
Harper edged Ignatieff as the better performer (47% to 40%) and as the more believable leader (45% to 40%) on this exchange.
Third Exchange – Canada’s Role in the World
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Ignatieff and Layton exchanged views on foreign policy, with a particular focus on the mission in Afghanistan. The level of interest during this exchange was significantly higher than in the previous ones, but annoyance remained the top emotion expressed by respondents. In the end, more respondents appeared annoyed and disturbed by the notion of a longer military deployment in Afghanistan,
Ignatieff’s admonishment of Layton (“We are where we are, sir”) led to a peak in disturbance, but the Liberal leader scored well on his views related to aid and development. However, the level of interest and happiness was highest when Layton manifested his wish to bring the troops home from Afghanistan.
The two party leaders are practically even, with Ignatieff holding a four-point advantage over Layton on performance (44% to 40%) and a virtual tie on believability (Ignatieff 42%, Layton 40%).
Closing Statements
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The proportion of respondents who felt annoyed and disturbed reached the highest point in the entire survey when Duceppe declared that Quebec must become a country.
Respondents were less troubled by the interventions of the other three leaders, who did well when discussing policy. Layton scored high levels of interest and happiness when he argued that the NDP would do a good job protecting pensions, Ignatieff’s plea for early education and child care was well received, as well as Harper’s call to focus on the economy and job creation.
Harper scored highest on performance (44%), followed by Layton (38%), Ignatieff (18%), and Duceppe (1%). Harper also was the winner on believability (40%).
Analysis
The primary emotion expressed by English-speaking Canadians who were exposed to these three debate exchanges and the four closing statements is annoyance. People are more likely to feel annoyed when the debaters interrupt and attack each other, and tend to react well to policy proposals and clearly voiced ideas—particularly from Harper, Layton and Ignatieff. Duceppe barely registers on some of the positive traits and characteristics tested among English Canadians.
In the end, Harper continues to be seen as a clear and decisive leader by half of respondents (50%), and scores similar numbers on being a person Canadians can agree with on issues (47%), and who is honest and trustworthy (47%). The debate clearly provided a boost to Layton, who scores higher than Harper on having a vision for Canada (40%) and understanding the problems of Canadians (41%). Ignatieff does best on inspiring confidence (34%), where he practically ties Layton and trails Harper.
The ReactionPlus analysis shows that, while many Canadians felt bored at various times during the debate, the level of interest and happiness definitely soars when attacks are avoided and the party leaders express their policy ideas in a clear and concrete fashion. The sole exception to this notion is Duceppe, whose message on Quebec’s sovereignty created the highest level of annoyance among respondents.
Overall, the debate served to sustain Harper’s position as a strong and decisive leader—a question where he has always held an advantage over his current three rivals—and allowed Layton to score points on some of his policy ideas, positioning himself as a viable alternative on vision and understanding what Canadians need. While Ignatieff managed to get high marks on foreign affairs and his desire to listen to other parties to get things done in Ottawa, he did not garner the backing of two-in-five Canadians on any of the traits tested at the end of the survey.
Full Report, Detailed Tables and Methodology (PDF)
Jaideep Mukerji, Vice President, Angus Reid Public Opinion
+514 409 0462
jaideep.mukerji@angus-reid.com
Methodology: From April 13 to April 14, 2011, Angus Reid Public Opinion conducted an online survey among 1,074 randomly selected English-speaking Canadian adults who are Angus Reid Forum panellists. The margin of error—which measures sampling variability—is +/- 3.1%. The results have been statistically weighted according to the most current education, age, gender and region Census data to ensure a sample representative of the entire adult population of Canada. Discrepancies in or between totals are due to rounding.
