Yes Side Ahead as More Britons Become Informed About Referendum
Labour Party maintains the upper hand, as UKIP drops two points.
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(04/15/11) -
With less than a month to go before the referendum that could change the way lawmakers in the United Kingdom are elected, the proposal to switch to the alternative vote system is slightly ahead in Britain, a new Angus Reid Public Opinion poll has found.
The referendum, which is scheduled for 5 May 2011, will ask voters whether the United Kingdom should continue to rely on the first past the post system to elect MPs to the House of Commons, or move to the alternative vote system instead.
In the online survey of a representative sample of 2,023 British adults, 32 per cent of respondents (+3 since mid-March) say they would vote Yes to switch to the alternative vote system to elect MPs to the House of Commons, while 28 per cent (=) would cast a No ballot in order to keep the existing first past the post system. Eight per cent of those polled say that they would not vote, and the proportion of undecideds has dropped slightly to 32 per cent (-3).
Men (39%) are more likely to vote Yes than women (26%), and the younger voters apparently have more impetus to change. Two-in-five respondents aged 18 to 34 (38%) will be voting Yes, compared to 29 per cent for those aged 35-54, and 31 per cent of those over the age of 55.
Liberal Democrat voters remain most supportive of the proposed change (54%of them plan to vote Yes) whilst Conservative voters are increasingly likely to vote No (43%, up from 30% in January). Labour voters are divided, with 30 per cent in favour of the change, and 33 per cent against it.
For the first time this year, a majority of respondents (57%, +12) say they are “very informed” or “moderately informed” about the alternative vote system.
Among decided voters, support for the change has increased by two points to 53 per cent—still lower than the proportion who were in favour of the proposed new system in January.
Voting Intention
Across Britain, 42 per cent of decided voters and leaners (+1) say they would support the Labour candidate in their constituency in the next General Election. The Conservative Party is second with 31 per cent (-1), and their coalition partners—the Liberal Democrats—are third with 11 per cent (+1).
The United Kingdom Independence Party (UKIP) is next with six per cent (-2), followed by the Scottish National Party (SNP) with four per cent, the Green Party with three per cent, the British National Party (BNP) with two per cent, and Plaid Cymru with one per cent.
Labour keeps double-digit leads in London (46% to 32%), the North (51% to 30%), and Midlands and Wales (44% to 30%). The Tories are ahead in the South of England (38% to 33%). In Scotland, Labour is leading the SNP by four points (40% to 36%).
Analysis
The electorate is paying more attention to the referendum, as shown by the 12 point increase in the proportion of respondents who report being informed about what’s at stake. The ballot numbers did not shift significantly since March, and the eventual outcome remains uncertain.
While supporters of the three main parties hold roughly the same level of undecided voters, Lib-Dems are definitely breaking to Yes, Tories to No, and Labourites are split down the middle. Turnout will indubitably become a factor in the outcome, and so will the motivation of the established national parties to advance the result that best fits their interests.
Download Full Methodology Statement
Full Report, Detailed Tables and Methodology (PDF)
CONTACT:
Mario Canseco, Vice President, Angus Reid Public Opinion
+877 730 3570
mario.canseco@angus-reid.com
Methodology: From April 8 to April 11, 2011, Angus Reid Public Opinion conducted an online survey among 2,023 randomly selected British adults who are Springboard UK panelists. The margin of error—which measures sampling variability—is +/- 2.2%. The results have been statistically weighted according to the most current education, age, gender and region data to ensure samples representative of the entire adult population of Great Britain. Discrepancies in or between totals are due to rounding.
