(04/07/11) -

Liberal, NDP Leaders Improve Image While Tories Maintain Significant Lead

Harper’s momentum score drops as races in Ontario and Quebec tighten.

Canadians’ evaluation of their political leaders has changed significantly in the first 10 days of the campaign, though overall vote intention remains largely unchanged according to findings of a recent Angus Reid / Toronto Star / La Presse survey.

Momentum Shifts for Leaders

The online survey of a representative sample of 2,031 Canadian adults shows that Prime Minister Stephen Harper’s momentum score, which measures the difference between those who feel their perception of a leader has improved since the start of the election and those who feel it has worsened since the start of the election, has fallen sharply. It now stands at -31, a seven-point drop from March 24. In contrast, Liberal leader Michael Ignatieff has seen his momentum score climb from -30 to -14 and NDP leader Jack Layton’s score has improved from -2 to +10.

Approval Ratings and Issue Management

The increased momentum scores for Ignatieff and Layton are accompanied by a significant increase in approval ratings for both leaders. Ignatieff’s rating is now at its highest point since August 2009, though despite this increase (25%, +6), he is still well back of Harper (34%, -3) and Layton (43%, +6).

Despite a dip in his approval rating, Harper still holds a considerable edge over his opponents in terms of who Canadians believe would make the best Prime Minister (30% Harper, 14% Ignatieff, 21% Layton) as well as handling the economy (36% Harper, 20% Ignatieff, 13% Layton) and crime (37% Harper, 15% Ignatieff, 12% Layton). Layton continues to lead on who would best handle health care (20% Harper, 14% Ignatieff, 33% Layton), ethics (19% Harper, 12% Ignatieff, 24% Layton) and the environment (14% Harper, 7% Ignatieff, 17% Layton).

Despite some improvement for Ignatieff in handling these policy areas, relatively few Canadians see Ignatieff as being better than Harper or Layton at handling the economy, health care, crime, the environment and ethics. Indeed, less than one fifth of Canadians (18%) think they would be better off with Ignatieff in office (just less than half of Liberals at 45%) while 40 per cent feel they would be worse off than they are now if Ignatieff were to become Prime Minister.

Vote Intention

Despite the significant changes in the past two weeks in how Canadians perceive the federal leaders, there has been relatively little movement in vote intention. The Conservative lead has narrowed but remains significant at 38 per cent (-1) to the Liberals’ 27 per cent (+2) and the NDP’s 21 per cent (+2). This may be due, in part, to the cohesion of the Conservative base; although Harper’s momentum score is down, vote retention remains higher for the Tories than the other parties (86 per cent of respondents who said they voted Conservative in 2008 say they would do so again now).  Moreover, 70 per cent of Conservative voters say they are certain they won’t change their mind before the election compared to 66 per cent for the Liberals and half of NDP voters (50%).

Regionally however, Harper’s early struggles in the campaign have helped contribute to a narrowing of the lead enjoyed by the Conservatives in Ontario (down from 15 points to eight points). In Quebec, the NDP has outpaced the Liberals and Conservatives as the first choice among federalist parties (24% NDP, 18% Liberal and 19% Conservative) though they still trail the Bloc (34%).

British Columbia continues to be a Conservative stronghold with 42 per cent of decided voters (+2). The Liberal Party has lost one point (21%) and support for the NDP remains unchanged at 28 per cent.

Leadership Attributes

When asked about personal attributes for the main political leaders, Stephen Harper’s image is one of stark contrasts. A majority of Canadians agree that Stephen Harper is a strong, decisive leader (52%) with a vision for the future of Canada (54%) yet fewer than one-in-three believes he inspires confidence (31%) or is honest and trustworthy (26%). In contrast, these attributes are clear strengths for Jack Layton (57% think he is honest and trustworthy, 46% think he inspires confidence) who also scores far better than any other leader in terms of understanding the problems of Canadians (61%). Michael Ignatieff fares worse than both leaders in each category, particularly in terms of inspiring confidence (22%) and being a strong and decisive leader (24%).

Follow us on Twitter.

Full Report, Detailed Tables and Methodology (PDF)

Pour lire ce communiqué en français, cliquez ici. (French Version PDF)

CONTACT:

Jaideep Mukerji, Vice President, Public Affairs
613-691-0948
jaideep.mukerji@visioncritical.com

From April 4 to April 5, 2011, Vision Critical / Angus Reid conducted an online survey among 2,031 randomly selected Canadian adults who are Angus Reid Forum panelists. The margin of error—which measures sampling variability—is +/- 2.2%, 19 times out of 20. The results have been statistically weighted according to the most current education, age, gender, language and region Census data to ensure a sample representative of the entire adult population of Canada. Discrepancies in or between totals are due to rounding.