With a federal spring election imminent, the Conservatives remain within striking distance of a majority a new Angus Reid Public Opinion poll conducted for the Toronto Star / La Presse has found. The Conservative party leads pre-campaign polling with 39 per cent of decided voters, while the Liberals trail at 25 per cent [...]
With a federal spring election imminent, the Conservatives remain within striking distance of a majority a new Angus Reid Public Opinion poll conducted for the Toronto Star / La Presse has found.
The Conservative party leads pre-campaign polling with 39 per cent of decided voters, while the Liberals trail at 25 per cent plan and the NDP are at 19 per cent.
Compared to the 2008 election results, the Conservatives have significantly improved their standing in Ontario; whereas they managed to edge out the Liberals by five per cent in that election, the Tories now enjoy a 15-point lead. This significant lead is tempered by a somewhat diminished standing in British Columbia (40% compared to 44% in 2008) and in Quebec (18% compared to 22% in 2008). An interesting dynamic is opening in Quebec where the NDP are now neck and neck with the Liberals and Conservatives.
Canadian men continue to support Harper’s Conservative party more than female voters by an eight-point margin (male 43% / female 35%).
Of those respondents who are certain they will not change their mind before the election, nearly half plan to vote Conservative (46%), suggesting a more mobilized and motivated base than the other parties. At the same time, this could present an opportunity for the Liberals who may gain NDP-leaning voters fearing a possible Conservative majority government. Only 26 per cent of Canadians feel that Harper’s Conservatives deserve a majority in the House of Commons.
The challenge faced by Liberal party leader Michael Ignatieff will be in convincing Canadians that he would make a better Prime Minister than Stephen Harper. Ignatieff currently trails both Harper and NDP leader Jack Layton on who would make the best Prime Minister and he has the lowest approval rating amongst the federal leaders (19 per cent of respondents approve of his performance).
More than half of respondents (56%) think the economy will be the most important issue during the upcoming federal election, while 48 per cent believe it should be the most important issue of the campaign. Harper continues to be identified as the leader best suited to dealing with economic issues (39%).
Despite the importance many Canadians place on ethics and accountability in politics, few respondents (14%) rank this as the most important issue of the election. 18 per cent of respondents believe Stephen Harper is the leader best suited to dealing with issues of ethics and accountability, placing him behind only the NDP’s Jack Layton at 21 per cent.
Approximately one-in-five respondents feel that Harper’s Conservative government has had more scandals than Trudeau (21%), Mulroney (18%), Chrétien (23%) and Martin (21%). Of the Conservative-enacted Federal Accountability Act designed to increase government transparency, 65 per cent of Canadians feel it has been only slightly effective or not effective at all since it was passed in 2006.
Stephen Harper remains the leader that respondents feel is the best choice for Prime Minister of Canada (32%). Nearly one-in-five respondents (19%) say none of the party leaders is a good choice. Jack Layton would make the best Prime Minister according to 17 per cent while Michael Ignatieff is the choice of 11 per cent of respondents. Gilles Duceppe and Elizabeth May both trail with three per cent each.
Nearly half of respondents (48%) disapprove of Stephen Harper’s performance as Prime Minister while 57 per cent disapprove of the performance of Michael Ignatieff as the Liberal and Official Opposition leader. 37 per cent of respondents approve of Jack Layton as the leader of the NDP.
Of those who voted Conservative in the last federal election, four-in-five respondents approve of Stephen Harper (83%) and 89 per cent plan to vote Conservative again. The Prime Minister remains a divisive figure in Canadian politics, with more than three quarters of Liberal and NDP voters (81% and 77%) saying they disapprove of Harper’s performance as Prime Minister.
Of those who voted New Democrat in the last election, 71 per cent approve of Jack Layton’s performance and 71 per cent plan to vote NDP again. Of those who voted Liberal in the last federal election, only half approve of Michael Ignatieff’s performance thus far (48%) and 73 per cent plan to vote Liberal again.
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Full Report, Detailed Tables and Methodology (PDF)
Jaideep Mukerji, Vice President, Public Affairs
613-691-0948
jaideep.mukerji@visioncritical.com
Methodology: On March 24, 2011, Angus Reid Public Opinion conducted an online survey among 2,365 randomly selected Canadian adults who are Angus Reid Forum panelists. The margin of error—which measures sampling variability—is +/- 3.1%, 19 times out of 20. The results have been statistically weighted according to the most current education, age, gender and region Census data to ensure a sample representative of the entire adult population of Canada. Discrepancies in or between totals are due to rounding.
