Little Change in British Politics, But Referendum Race Tightens
Decided voters are almost evenly split when assessing the new alternative vote system.
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(03/23/11) -
Support for the Labour Party is still high in Britain and the two governing coalition parties remain far behind, a new Angus Reid Public Opinion poll has found.
The online survey of a representative sample of 2,023 British adults also shows that decided voters are divided on whether to adopt a new system to elect members of the House of Commons.
Voting Intention
Across Britain, 41 per cent of decided voters and leaners (= since early March) say they would support the Labour candidate in their constituency in the next General Election. The Conservative Party is second with 32 per cent (-1), and their coalition partners—the Liberal Democrats—are third with 10 per cent (=).
The United Kingdom Independence Party (UKIP) is next with eight per cent, followed by the Scottish National Party (SNP) with four per cent, the Green Party with two per cent, the British National Party (BNP) also with two per cent, and Plaid Cymru with one per cent.
Labour maintains double-digit leads in London (48% to 30%) and the North (48% to 27%), and keeps a three-point edge over the Tories in Midlands and Wales. The Tories are ahead in the South of England (41% to 33%). In Scotland, Labour is leading the SNP by five points (43% to 38%).
Referendum
The referendum, which is scheduled for 5 May 2011, will ask voters whether the United Kingdom should continue to rely on the first past the post system to elect MPs to the House of Commons, or move to the alternative vote system instead.
Overall, 29 per cent of respondents (-3 since early March) say they would vote Yes to switch to the alternative vote system to elect MPs to the House of Commons. Conversely, 28 per cent of respondents (-2) would cast a No ballot in order to keep the existing first past the post system. More than a third of respondents (35%, =) remain undecided, and seven per cent (=) would not vote.
Among decided voters, opposition to the change has grown by four points to 49 per cent, with the Yes side marginally ahead by two points (51%).
In the survey, 45 per cent of respondents say they are “very informed” or “moderately informed” about the alternative vote system, don three points since early March.
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Mario Canseco, Vice President, Communications & Media Relations
+877 730 3570
mario.canseco@visioncritical.com
Methodology: From March 18 to March 21, 2011, Angus Reid Public Opinion conducted an online survey among 2,023 randomly selected British adults who are Springboard UK panelists. The margin of error—which measures sampling variability—is +/- 2.2%. The results have been statistically weighted according to the most current education, age, gender and region data to ensure samples representative of the entire adult population of Great Britain. Discrepancies in or between totals are due to rounding.
