(03/22/11) -

Governing BC Liberals Extend Lead as Clark Becomes Premier

Mike Farnworth is still the most popular choice for British Columbians and NDP voters to take over from Carole James.

The governing BC Liberals have solidified their position as the most popular party in British Columbia following the election of Christy Clark as leader, a new Angus Reid Public Opinion poll has found.

The online survey of a representative provincial sample of 807 British Columbian adults also shows that a majority of respondents would vote to abolish the harmonized sales tax (HST) in the referendum expected to take place this June.

Political Scene

The BC Liberals are once again ahead of the opposition, with 43 per cent of decided voters and leaners (+2 since February) saying they will support the governing party in the next election. The New Democratic Party (NDP) is second with 38 per cent (unchanged), followed by the Green Party (10%, -1) and the BC Conservatives (5%, +1).

The BC Liberals hold the upper hand in Metro Vancouver, Vancouver Island and the North, while the NDP is leading in the Interior. The governing party maintains the 14-point advantage among male voters. Among women, the NDP is five points ahead—down from a nine-point advantage last month. The NDP remains the top choice for voters aged 18-to-34 and those living in households earning less than $50,000 a year.

The two parties maintain the impressive retention rates shown in February, with the NDP keeping 82 per cent of its 2009 voters, and the BC Liberals holding on to 77 per cent of their 2009 electors.

About two-in-five British Columbians (38%) say that they will vote for the BC Liberals in the next election (20%) or are leaning towards supporting the party (18%).

NDP Leadership Race

Mike Farnworth remains the most popular choice in this contest, with 43 per cent of BC residents and 54 per cent of NDP voters in 2009 regarding him as a good choice to replace Carole James. Adrian Dix can count on the endorsement of 27 per cent of BC residents and 41 per cent of NDP voters in the last provincial election.

John Horgan is a distant third, with the support of 23 per cent of NDP voters. The level of support among NDP voters is lower for Dana Larsen (17%) and Nicholas Simons (9%).

HST Referendum

A majority of British Columbians (54%) will vote to abolish the HST in the referendum tentatively scheduled for Jun. 24, while one third (33%) would vote to keep it.

Women (60%), respondents aged 18 to 34 (62%) and those living in households earning less than $50,000 a year (62%) are the groups that voice the strongest opposition to the HST.

The BC Place Casino

Across the province, 47 per cent of respondents disagree with the plan to build a $450-million hotel-casino development next to BC Place in Vancouver, while 39 per cent of respondents agree with it. In Metro Vancouver, respondents are evenly divided (Agree 47%, Disagree 44%).

Respondents are divided on the two arguments for and against the proposed casino. While 42 per cent of British Columbians think the development will bring tourism dollars and create jobs for union workers, 37 per cent think it will increase gambling addiction and lead to more crime and traffic.

Analysis

The BC Liberals are ahead of the NDP by five points, but still slightly below their total in the 2009 election. The governing party is reconnecting with voters in Vancouver Island, and has increased its share among women voters—although it still trails the NDP in this demographic.

The HST would be abolished if the referendum took place this month, but it is important to note that the level of animosity towards the tax is considerably lower than last year, when three-in-five respondents were ready to vote against the HST. It will be important to see if the numbers shift once the new government and the opposition define their campaign strategies.

Full Report, Detailed Tables and Methodology (PDF)

CONTACT:

Mario Canseco, Vice President, Communications & Media Relations
+877 730 3570
mario.canseco@visioncritical.com

Methodology: From March 16 to March 17, 2011, Angus Reid Public Opinion conducted an online survey among 807 randomly selected British Columbia adults who are Angus Reid Forum panellists. The margin of error—which measures sampling variability—is +/- 3.5%. The results have been statistically weighted according to the most current education, age, gender and region Census data to ensure a sample representative of the entire adult population of British Columbia. Discrepancies in or between totals are due to rounding.