(01/20/11) -

A Third of Americans Would Give Obama a New Term in 2012

Most respondents welcomed the compromise with the Republicans on tax policy.

Despite a continuing call for political unity, Barack Obama remains a polarizing figure in United States politics, with a majority of Democrats believing that he should be re-elected as President in 2012, but just one-in-ten Republicans and one-in-four Independents sharing the same opinion, a new Vision Critical poll has found.

In the online survey of a representative national sample of 1,006 American adults, more than a third of respondents (36%) say Obama has performed worse than they expected after almost two years in office, while 45 per cent believe he has performed about the same as they expected. Only 13 per cent of respondents think the President has performed better than they expected.

Two-in-five respondents (40%) think Obama has accomplished little in his first two years as President, while 29 per cent think it is too early to judge his accomplishments. One-in-five Americans (21%) think Obama has accomplished much over the past two years.

At this point, a third of Americans (33%) believe Obama deserves to be re-elected as President in 2012, while 44 per cent disagree. Compared to an Angus Reid / Vision Critical survey conducted in January 2010, Obama has gained three points on the re-election question (from 30% to 33%), but the proportion of people who believe he does not deserve a new term has increased by five points (from 39% to 44%).

Half of Americans (51%) agree with Obama’s recent statement, where he defended doing or trying to do what he promised during the 2008 campaign. More than a third of respondents (37%) disagree with the President.

Three-in-five respondents (59%) think Obama was right to compromise with the Republicans and extend the tax cuts for all Americans that began under President Bush, while allowing for the continuation of government compensation for unemployed Americans and tax credits to help businesses.

Analysis

After two years at the White House, and a mid-term election that saw the Republicans take control of the House of Representatives, partisanship continues to play a role in the way Americans perceive the President.

Republicans only praise Obama for compromising—and allowing the Bush tax cuts to continue—but are consistently critical of other facets of his tenure, particularly in regard to his performance and accomplishments.

Despite the fact that many Democrats are voicing satisfaction with the President, there are signs that the level of support among the party faithful is starting to erode. About one-in-five Democrats are disappointed with Obama’s performance (20%), feel he has accomplished too little in the past two years (23%), and think he does not deserve to be re-elected in 2012 (19%).

Among Independents, a key group in Obama’s 2008 victory over Republican John McCain, the numbers for the President show a need to strengthen the base of support for another term. Almost half of Independents (49%) think Obama has not done enough to earn a new term at the White House, and two-in-five feel he has accomplished little (42%) and has been a worse head of state than they originally anticipated (41%). It will be important to track the perceptions of this group throughout the next 12 months, to review whether any one of the prospective Republican contenders can capitalize on Obama’s apparent weakness.

Full Report, Detailed Tables and Methodology (PDF)

Methodology: From January 14 to January 16, 2010, Vision Critical conducted an online survey among 1,006 American adults who are Springboard America panelists. The margin of error—which measures sampling variability—is +/- 3.1%. The results have been statistically weighted according to the most current education, age, gender and region Census data to ensure a sample representative of the entire adult population of the United States. Discrepancies in or between totals are due to rounding.