Labour Still Leads in Britain, Even if Coalition Partners Run Together
Only a third of people who voted for the Liberal Democrats in 2010 would support the party if it runs in tandem with the Tories.
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(01/07/11) -
The opposition Labour Party remains ahead of the Conservatives in Britain, while the Liberal Democrats have recovered from their poor showing in December, a new Vision Critical / Angus Reid poll has found.
In the online survey of a representative sample of 2,010 British adults, 40 per cent of decided voters and leaners (-1 since late December) say they would support the Labour candidate in their constituency in the next General Election.
The Conservative Party is second with 35 per cent (=), followed by their coalition partners—the Liberal Democrats—with 12 per cent (+3).
The United Kingdom Independence Party (UKIP) is next on the list with five per cent, followed by the Scottish National Party (SNP) with three per cent, the Green Party with two per cent, the British National Party (BNP) also with two per cent, and Plaid Cymru with one per cent.
Labour is practically tied with the Tories in London (38% to 36%) and holds a 20-point lead in the North (46% to 32%) and a four-point edge in Midlands and Wales (41% to 37%). The Tories are ahead in the South of England (43% to 34%). In Scotland, Labour maintains its eight-point advantage on the SNP (42% to 34%).
A Merged Coalition Party?
The survey was conducted at the height of speculation related to the possibility of the two coalition partners running together in the next General Election. Respondents were asked to reconsider their options in a campaign in which the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats ran as a single party. Under this scenario, Labour remains on top with the support of 45 per cent of decided voters and leaners. The joint Conservative / Liberal Democrats is second with 38 per cent.
Analysis
Support for the Conservatives has remained stagnant, while the Liberal Democrats managed to get back to double digits after a severe drop in December. Labour has solidified its position as the most popular party at the moment.
The prospect of a unified coalition party would be particularly beneficial for Labour in the North. The Coalition partners would be slightly ahead of Labour in London, but make little headway among particular demographics, with the exception of voters over the age of 55.
The main hindrance for the unified Coalition party—if it ever materializes—would be the patent disappointment from Liberal Democrat supporters. While the merged party would hold on to four-in-five voters who cast a ballot for a Conservative candidate in 2010 (83%), only one third of Liberal Democrat voters in 2010 (32%) would support a joint Tory/Lib-Dem candidate. In fact, almost half of them (46%) would vote for Labour instead.
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Full Report, Detailed Tables and Methodology (PDF)
CONTACT:
Mario Canseco, Vice President, Communications & Media Relations
+877 730 3570
mario.canseco@angusvisioncritical.com
Methodology: From January 6 to January 7, 2011, Vision Critical conducted an online survey among 2,010 randomly selected British adults who are Springboard UK panelists. The margin of error—which measures sampling variability—is +/- 2.2%. The results have been statistically weighted according to the most current education, age, gender and region data to ensure samples representative of the entire adult population of Great Britain. Discrepancies in or between totals are due to rounding.
