(12/29/10) -

Most Americans Remain Suspicious of Iran’s Nuclear Aspirations

Iran rated as most unfavorable nation out of 12 tested, but only about one-in-four Americans believe it is time to use military force.

More than two thirds of Americans believe the Government of Iran is actively pursuing a nuclear weapons program, but only one-in-four believe the United States should rely on military force to deal with this threat, a new survey conducted by Vision Critical has found.

In the online survey of a representative national sample of 1,005 Americans, three quarters of respondents (75%) have an “unfavorable” opinion of Iran—this is directionally higher than “Axis of Evil” nation North Korea (72%) and Afghanistan (69%), a country where the U.S. is currently fighting a war.

Canada—the largest trading partner with the U.S.—and Australia (83% and 82%, respectively) were given the highest proportion of favorable mentions by Americans.

Americans also continue to be highly suspicious of Iran’s nuclear ambitions, with 70 per cent of respondents agreeing with the notion that the Government of Iran is attempting to develop nuclear weapons. Only 11 per cent of Americans do not believe that Iran is pursuing a nuclear program, while one-in-five (19%) are not sure. These findings are consistent with a similar poll conducted by Vision Critical/Angus Reid Public Opinion at the start of 2010.

Despite these strong negative feelings and suspicions, Americans are still not in favor of any type of military engagement or intervention with Iran. In fact, the most frequent option Americans recommend to deal with Iran is engaging in diplomatic negotiations (30%, up slightly from 26% in January 2010), followed by economic sanctions (20%). Only five per cent of respondents would do nothing, claiming that Iran poses no threat to the world.

Across the country, 16 per cent of Americans would consent to launching military strikes to destroy Iran’s nuclear facilities, and seven per cent would authorize a full-scale invasion of Iran and removing the current government.

There are some striking differences when party allegiance is taken into consideration. More than half of Democrats would rely on negotiations and sanctions to deal with Iran (56%), while two-in-five Republicans (40%) would prefer to launch strikes or authorize an invasion. Independents are more likely to choose diplomacy and sanctions (52%) than air strikes or an invasion (19%).

Analysis

Over the last 12 months, American feelings toward Iraq and other “Axis of Evil” nations remain steadfastly negative. However, the most likely outcome in this area for 2011 is a movement to bring Iran, as well as other adversarial nations (such as North Korea) to the bargaining table.

While Americans evidently have strong negative feelings toward these nations, few are in favor of military action at this point. However, even less are in favor of doing nothing as Americans feel these nations do represent a threat to the country. Perhaps some of the diplomatic achievements of 2010 (such as the ratification of START 2, ongoing diplomacy with Iraq, and the South Korean trade pact) bode well for diplomacy in 2011.

Full Report, Detailed Tables and Methodology (PDF)

Methodology: From December 16 to December 17, 2010, Vision Critical conducted an online survey among 1,005 American adults who are Springboard America panelists. The margin of error—which measures sampling variability—is +/- 3.1%. The results have been statistically weighted according to the most current education, age, gender and region Census data to ensure a sample representative of the entire adult population of the United States.