(12/23/10) -

Half of Canadians Want to Hold a Federal Election in 2011

Two thirds of respondents think it is likely that they will go to the polls in the New Year.

Half of Canadians would have no reservations about taking part in a federal election in 2011, a new Angus Reid Public Opinion / Toronto Star poll has found.

In the online survey of a representative national sample of 1,000 Canadian adults, 49 per cent of respondents agree with holding a federal election next year while one third (34%) disagree with the idea.

Nearly three-in-five respondents who voted for the Conservative Party in the 2008 federal election (57%) do not want to see an election in 2011. Conversely, 58 per cent of people who voted for either the Liberal Party or the New Democratic Party (NDP) in 2008 do support an election.

Despite their personal opinions on the matter, a majority of Canadians (57%) feel that a federal election is likely in the New Year. One quarter (24%) think it is unlikely while one-in-five are not sure (19%).

When asked which election outcome they would personally prefer, 36 per cent of respondents favour a Conservative government while slightly fewer (30%) support Liberal control. That said, nearly half of Canadians (48%) expect that the Conservatives will maintain their position in Ottawa. More than a third are not sure (36%) and 16 per cent expect the Liberals to form the government.

Were the Conservatives to win a majority of the seats in the House of Commons, 41 per cent of Canadians would be dissatisfied and one third would be happy (34%). With a Conservative minority government, 44 per cent would not be satisfied while 31 per cent would be content.

A scenario where the Conservatives win more seats than any other single party, but the Liberals and the NDP form a coalition government—having more combined seats than the Conservatives—would leave 31 per cent of Canadians satisfied, and 43 per cent dissatisfied.

Canadians would be most unhappy with a scenario in which the Conservatives win the most seats but the Liberals and NDP form a coalition government with the support of the Bloc Québécois. Only one-in-four Canadians (25%) would be satisfied with this outcome, while half of respondents (50%) would be dissatisfied.

Full Report, Detailed Tables and Methodology (PDF)

CONTACT:

Jaideep Mukerji, Vice President, Public Affairs
+514 409 0462
jaideep.mukerji@angus-reid.com

Methodology: From December 21 to December 22, 2010, Angus Reid Public Opinion conducted an online survey among 1,016 randomly selected Canadian adults who are Angus Reid Forum panelists. The margin of error—which measures sampling variability—is +/- 3.1%, 19 times out of 20. The results have been statistically weighted according to the most current education, age, gender and region Census data to ensure a sample representative of the entire adult population of Canada. Discrepancies in or between totals are due to rounding.