(12/08/10) -

Conservatives Keep Lead in Canada as Liberal Voters Ponder Change

While large majorities of Tory and NDP supporters are content with Stephen Harper and Jack Layton, only 38 per cent of Liberal voters in 2008 would keep Michael Ignatieff at the helm.

The Conservative Party would coast to another minority government if a new federal election were held today, and many Liberal Party supporters in Canada are questioning whether their current leader should be at the helm when the next ballot is called, a new Angus Reid Public Opinion / Toronto Star poll has found.

In the online survey of a representative national sample of 1,013 Canadian adults, 38 per cent of respondents (+1 since October) would back the governing Conservative Party in the next federal election.

The Liberal Party is second with 26 per cent (=), followed by the New Democratic Party (NDP) with 18 per cent (-1), the Bloc Québécois with 10 per cent (=), and the Green Party with seven per cent (+1). Stagnation has evidently hit all five federal parties, which are within a point of their totals in the 2008 federal election.

Regional Breakdowns

Half of voters in Alberta (50%) and Manitoba and Saskatchewan (51%) continue to express a preference for the Conservatives. In British Columbia, the NDP has dropped to second place with 30 per cent, with the Tories now ahead by nine points.

In Ontario, the Conservatives have extended their advantage over the Liberals (44% to 31%). In Quebec, the Bloc is still ahead (39%), with the three federalist parties far behind (Lib. 19%, Con. 18%, NDP 17%).

Leaders

Respondents across the country were asked if the five main federal parties should keep their current leader or change their current leader before the next federal election takes place. While 44 per cent of Canadians would prefer to see a different person leading the governing Conservatives, Stephen Harper gets a vote of confidence from 79 per cent of those who voted for the Tories in the 2008 federal ballot.

Across Canada, 51 per cent of respondents would keep Jack Layton as leader of the New Democratic Party (NDP), along with 80 per cent of those who voted for the NDP in 2008. Gilles Duceppe posts similar numbers (64% of Quebecers want him to stay as leader, along with 86% of Bloc voters from 2008). Half of Canadians (51%) are undecided on whether Elizabeth May should remain as leader of the Greens, but 64 per cent of those who voted for the Green Party in 2008 would keep her.

The situation is unquestionably different for Michael Ignatieff, with a majority of Canadians (56%) and almost half of Liberal voters in 2008 (46%) claiming that the Grits should change their leader before the next federal election.

Approval and Momentum

The approval rating for each of the three main leaders fell by two points since October. Prime Minister and Conservative leader Stephen Harper stands at 26 per cent this month, NDP leader Jack Layton is at 25 per cent, and Liberal Party and Official Opposition leader Michael Ignatieff is last with 14 per cent.

Layton maintains the best momentum score of the three leaders at -9, followed by Ignatieff with -19 and Harper with -22.

Attributes

Canadians were asked to select up to six words or expressions from a list to describe the four party leaders sitting in the House of Commons. The top five results for each one of the leaders are:

• Stephen Harper – Secretive (43%), arrogant (39%), out of touch (33%), intelligent (34%), boring (30%)

• Gilles Duceppe – Arrogant (31%), out of touch (26%), intelligent (26%), boring (19%), secretive (19%)

Legislatures

Starting this month, Angus Reid Public Opinion will provide an assessment of the way Canadians feel about various legislative bodies. One third of respondents (33%) approve of the way the House of Commons is handling its job, while 43 per cent disapprove. The rating is decidedly lower for the Senate of Canada (Approve 23%, Disapprove 47%). Just about three-in-ten Canadians (28%) endorse the way their provincial legislature is performing, while half of respondents (51%) disapprove.

Analysis

As a whole, the Canadian electorate did not go through a major shift over the past month, with the Conservatives still entrenched in “minority government” territory and the opposition parties practically stagnant.

The survey does provide sobering news for Michael Ignatieff, whose negative attributes have increased markedly this time around—including the proportion of Canadians who see him as out of touch, weak and inefficient—and with almost half of Liberal voters in 2008 calling for a change before the next election is called.

Full Report, Detailed Tables and Methodology (PDF)

CONTACT:

Jaideep Mukerji, Vice President, Public Affairs
+514 409 0462
jaideep.mukerji@angus-reid.com

Methodology: From December 6 to December 7, 2010, Angus Reid Public Opinion conducted an online survey among 1,013 randomly selected Canadian adults who are Angus Reid Forum panelists. The margin of error—which measures sampling variability—is +/- 3.1%, 19 times out of 20. The results have been statistically weighted according to the most current education, age, gender and region Census data to ensure a sample representative of the entire adult population of Canada. Discrepancies in or between totals are due to rounding.