(12/01/10) -

Seven-in-Ten Americans Expect War to Break Out in the Korean Peninsula

More than half of respondents support U.S. soldiers helping South Korea in an eventual conflict with North Korea.

More than two thirds of Americans expect armed conflict to break out in the Korean Peninsula over the next year and more than half are in favor of allowing U.S. soldiers to provide assistance to South Korea, a new Angus Reid Public Opinion poll has found.

The online survey of a representative national sample of 1,003 American adults also shows that respondents are split on whether a war in the Korean Peninsula would warrant a military invasion initiated by the U.S. federal government to topple the North Korean regime.

Likelihood of War

The proportion of Americans who believe a war breaking out between South Korea and North Korea in the next year is “Very likely” or “moderately likely” increased from 52 per cent in August to 71 per cent in late November. Large proportions of Democrats (68%), Independents (74%) and Republicans (80%) all believe a conflict could start in the next 12 months.

The Role of the U.S.

More than half of Americans (53%, +6 since August) would support American soldiers providing assistance to South Korea in the event of a war against North Korea, while three-in-ten (31%) disagree with this course of action. Republicans (71%) are more likely than Independents (54%) and Democrats (46%) to endorse this notion.

Respondents are almost evenly divided on whether the U.S. Government should authorize a military invasion of North Korea with the aim of removing the North Korean Government, if a war breaks out in the Korean Peninsula. While 38 per cent of respondents are in favor of an invasion, 41 per cent are opposed. More than half of Republicans (53%) are ready to endorse an incursion in this particular scenario, but only 37 per cent of Independents and 34 per cent of Democrats concur.

Analysis

The recent exchange of fire in the South Korean island of Yeonpyeong has clearly affected the way Americans perceive the situation in the Korean Peninsula. The proportion of respondents who expect a war has increased dramatically since August, and a majority of respondents believe the U.S. should stand by its South Korean allies.

On the complex issue of a “regime change” operation, the public is clearly not willing to issue a blanket endorsement. Public opinion is divided on whether the U.S. should try to remove the North Korean regime in the event of a full-scale conflict with South Korea.

Our previous surveys survey on Tension in Korea can be accessed here: May 2010 / August 2010

Full Report, Detailed Tables and Methodology (PDF)

CONTACT:

Mario Canseco, Vice President, Communications & Media Relations
+877 730 3570
mario.canseco@angus-reid.com

Methodology: From November 25 to November 27, 2010, Angus Reid Public Opinion conducted an online survey among 1,003 American adults who are Springboard America panelists. The margin of error—which measures sampling variability—is +/- 3.1%. The results have been statistically weighted according to the most current education, age, gender and region Census data to ensure a sample representative of the entire adult population of the United States. Discrepancies in or between totals are due to rounding.