British Columbians welcomed the tax break announced by Premier Gordon Campbell during his televised appearance last week, but were not swayed by his justification for the implementation of the harmonized sales tax (HST), a new Angus Reid Public Opinion poll has found.
The provincial NDP maintains a high level of voter support, and two-thirds of British Columbians would cast a ballot to abolish the HST.
British Columbians welcomed the tax break announced by Premier Gordon Campbell during his televised appearance last week, but were not swayed by his justification for the implementation of the harmonized sales tax (HST), a new Angus Reid Public Opinion poll has found.
The online survey of a representative provincial sample of 807 British Columbian adults—completed before the Premier announced his resignation at 11:30 am on Nov. 3—also finds that less than one-in-five respondents expected the BC Government to deliver on Campbell’s recent education and health care pledges.
Political Scene
Almost half of decided voters and leaners across British Columbia (47%, -2 since October) would cast a ballot for the New Democratic Party (NDP) candidate in their riding if a provincial election were held tomorrow. The governing BC Liberals are in second place with 26 per cent (+2).
The Green Party is third with 10 per cent (-3), and is now tied with the BC Conservative Party for the first time (10%, +2). Seven per cent of respondents would support other parties or vote for independent candidates.
The Liberals trail the NDP in every demographic, except respondents living in households earning more than $100,000 a year (49% to 33%).
The fluctuation among decided voters did not alter the retention rates for the two main contenders. The NDP is holding on to 87 per cent of their May 2009 voters, while the Liberals are only backed by 55 per cent of their supporters in last year’s provincial election.
The Leaders
The approval rating for Premier and BC Liberal leader Gordon Campbell is 12 per cent (+3 since October). One-in-four respondents (25%) approve of the way Carole James is handling her duties (-2), and 11 per cent (-1) are satisfied with Green Party leader Jane Sterk.
All three party leaders maintain the negative momentum scores they had last month. Campbell is at -61 (4% of respondents say their opinion of the BC Premier has improved in the past three months, while 65% say it has worsened), followed by James with -13, and Sterk with -4.
HST Referendum
Two-thirds of British Columbians (66%, -6) say they would vote to abolish the HST in the referendum scheduled for Sept. 24, 2011. One-in-five (21%, =) would cast a ballot to keep the HST, while 13 per cent (+6) are undecided.
There is a noticeable gender gap on this question, as women (72%) are much more likely than men (59%) to express support for abolishing the HST.
The Premier’s Speech
A majority of respondents do not expect the BC Government to deliver on two pledges made by Campbell during his televised speech.
Three-in-five British Columbians (58%) do not believe that every Grade 4 student will be reading, writing and doing math at a Grade 4 level by 2015, and a similar proportion (60%) do not foresee the government allocating 49 cents out of every dollar to support health services in British Columbia by 2013.
Two-thirds of respondents (66%) think that Campbell was unconvincing when he discussed the decision to bring in the Harmonized Sales Tax (HST). Only nine per cent of respondents found him convincing.
Two-thirds of British Columbians (65%) support Campbell’s decision to announce a 15 per cent reduction in the tax rates on all personal income up to 72,000 dollars, effective Jan. 1, 2011.
The Future
About a third of respondents (32%) say they would prefer for the NDP to form the government after the 2013 election, while about three-in-ten (28%) would like to see the BC Liberals—with a different leader—assembling the next provincial administration.
Analysis
In the last survey taken before Gordon Campbell’s resignation, the NDP remains way ahead of the BC Liberals. The support of almost half of decided voters appears impressive. However, the slight advantage on the “next government” question suggests that a section of NDP voter support is soft, and amounts to a rejection of Gordon Campbell. Carole James actually lost points in the approval category this month, and keeps a negative momentum score, despite battling the most unpopular premier in the country.
For the BC Liberals, the survey shows that, while most British Columbians welcomed the announced tax break, Campbell had ceased to be the best spokesperson for the party. Few people were convinced by the HST explanation, and less than one-in-five expected the government to deliver on the health care and education pledges. A new era begins, and the governing party will look for a new leader who will be tasked with courting disenchanted supporters.
This year’s editions of the BC Political Scene can be accessed here:
March 2010 / April 2010 / June 2010 / July 2010 / September 2010 / October 2010
Full Report, Detailed Tables and Methodology (PDF)
Mario Canseco, Vice President, Communications & Media Relations
+877 730 3570
mario.canseco@angus-reid.com
Methodology: From November 2 to November 3, 2010, Angus Reid Public Opinion conducted an online survey among 807 randomly selected British Columbia adults who are Angus Reid Forum panellists. The margin of error—which measures sampling variability—is +/- 3.5%. The results have been statistically weighted according to the most current education, age, gender and region Census data to ensure a sample representative of the entire adult population of British Columbia. Discrepancies in or between totals are due to rounding.
