.jpg)
The Conservative Party holds a double-digit lead in Canada and overall voter preferences are very similar to the will expressed by the electorate in the last federal election, a new Angus Reid Public Opinion poll has found.
All five major parties are currently garnering roughly the same level of support that they had in the 2008 election.
The Conservative Party holds a double-digit lead in Canada and overall voter preferences are very similar to the will expressed by the electorate in the last federal election, a new Angus Reid Public Opinion poll has found.
In the online survey of a representative national sample of 1,016 Canadian adults, 37 per cent of respondents (+3 since September) would support the governing Conservative Party in the next federal election.
The Liberal Party is second with 26 per cent (=), followed by the New Democratic Party (NDP) with 19 per cent (+1), the Bloc Québécois with 10 per cent (=), and the Green Party with six per cent (-5).
All five parties are within a point of their totals in the 2008 federal election. The large gains made by the Greens in September have disappeared, and the out-of-Parliament party is once again trailing the Bloc at the national level.
Regional Breakdowns
A majority of voters in Alberta (62%) and Manitoba and Saskatchewan (70%) continue to express a preference for the Conservatives. In British Columbia, the NDP has moved to first place with 37 per cent, followed by the Tories with 32 per cent and the Grits with 22 per cent.
In Ontario, the Conservatives are ahead of the Liberals by nine points (41% to 32%). In Quebec, the Bloc continues to dominate (39%), with the three federalist parties far behind (Lib. 24%, Con. 16%, NDP 14%).
Approval and Momentum
The approval rating for Prime Minister and Conservative leader Stephen Harper stands at 28 per cent this month (+3). NDP leader Jack Layton is at 27 per cent for the third consecutive month, and Liberal Party and Official Opposition leader Michael Ignatieff is last with 16 per cent (+1).
Layton maintains the best momentum score of the three leaders at -4, followed by Ignatieff with -15 and Harper with -21.
Attributes
Canadians were asked to select up to six words or expressions from a list to describe the four party leaders sitting in the House of Commons. The top five results for each one of the leaders are:
• Stephen Harper – Secretive (40%), arrogant (39%), out of touch (35%), boring (32%), intelligent (31%)
• Michael Ignatieff – Intelligent (34%), arrogant (33%), out of touch (31%), boring (30%), inefficient (23%)
• Jack Layton – Intelligent (30%), honest (28%), down to earth (27%), compassionate (26%), open (26%),
• Gilles Duceppe – Arrogant (33%), out of touch (28%), inefficient (19%), dishonest (19%), intelligent (19%)
Analysis
Following weeks of discussions about the federal government’s performance, the mood of the electorate is very similar to what was seen in the fall of 2008. The Conservatives lead by 11 points, but are nowhere near the majority government that has been coveted since 2006. The sizeable advantage in Ontario provides comfort for Tories, but is countered by poor numbers in Quebec and a second place showing in British Columbia.
The Liberals have not recovered ground in the west and have fallen behind in Canada’s most populous province. The NDP outranks the Tories in BC, but is not connecting well in other areas of the country. The Bloc is steady, and the Greens have come back to earth after a particularly good September. In short, with no election in the immediate future, voters are not going through much movement.
This year’s editions of the Canadian Political Pulse can be accessed here:
January 2010 / February 2010 / March 2010 / April 2010 /
May 2010 / July 2010 / August 2010 / September 2010
Full Report, Detailed Tables and Methodology (PDF)
Jaideep Mukerji, Vice President, Public Affairs
+514 409 0462
jaideep.mukerji@angus-reid.com
Methodology: From October 25 to October 26, 2010, Angus Reid Public Opinion conducted an online survey among 1,016 randomly selected Canadian adults who are Angus Reid Forum panelists. The margin of error—which measures sampling variability—is +/- 3.1%, 19 times out of 20. The results have been statistically weighted according to the most current education, age, gender and region Census data to ensure a sample representative of the entire adult population of Canada. Discrepancies in or between totals are due to rounding.
