(10/16/10) -

BC NDP Remains Ahead, As Campbell Drops to Single Digits

Support for the governing BC Liberals remains low and the approval rating for the Premier of British Columbia is now in single digits, a new Angus Reid Public Opinion poll has found.

Seven-in-ten British Columbians would vote to abolish the HST in the referendum scheduled for September 2011.

Support for the governing BC Liberals remains low and the approval rating for the Premier of British Columbia is now in single digits, a new Angus Reid Public Opinion poll has found.

The online survey of a representative provincial sample of 800 British Columbian adults also shows that a large majority of respondents would cast a ballot to abolish the harmonized sales tax (HST) in the province-wide referendum scheduled for September 2011.

Political Scene

For the third consecutive month, practically half of decided voters and leaners across British Columbia (49%, +1 since September) would cast a ballot for the NDP if a provincial election were held tomorrow.

The BC Liberals are in second place with 24 per cent (-1), followed by the Green Party with 13 per cent (=), and the BC Conservatives with eight per cent (=).

Six per cent of respondents would support other parties or vote for independent candidates.

As was the case last month, the BC Liberals are only holding on to 55 per cent of their supporters in the May 2009 provincial election, with more than a third of these voters now choosing the NDP (23%) or the BC Conservatives (13%). The NDP is holding on to 88 per cent of their voters in last year’s ballot.

The Leaders

The approval rating for Premier and BC Liberal leader Gordon Campbell has dropped to nine per cent (-3 since September). This is the lowest level recorded by any Canadian premier over the past two years. More than a quarter of respondents (27%, -3) approve of the way NDP leader Carole James is performing, while 12 per cent (-5) are satisfied with the way Green leader Jane Sterk is handling her duties.

All three party leaders lost points on approval, and also have negative momentum scores. Campbell is at -61 (four per cent of respondents say their opinion of the BC Premier has improved in the past three months, while 65% say it has worsened), followed by James with -14, and Sterk with -3.

HST Referendum

Seven-in-ten British Columbians (72%) say they would vote to abolish the HST in the referendum scheduled for Sept. 24, 2011. One-in-five (21%) would cast a ballot to keep the HST, while seven per cent are either undecided. Voter rejection to the HST is highest in Vancouver Island (78%), while the pro-HST camp performs slightly better in Metro Vancouver (24%).

Women (76%) are more likely than men (68%) to express support for abolishing the HST, along with respondents in households earning less than $50,000 a year. Still, even among respondents living in households earning more than $100,000 a year, the HST is rejected by a large margin (68% to 29%).

Analysis

The NDP maintains good numbers across the province, and has effectively attracted a sizeable proportion of disenchanted BC Liberals. The difficulty for the opposition party is that its leader has not been able to fully capitalize on the evident misfortunes of the sitting premier. The rating for Carole James stands at a modest 27 per cent, and two-in-five committed NDP voters are not yet approving of her leadership.

The BC Liberals appear to have hit rock bottom, with their leader holding the support of less than one-in-ten British Columbians and the party continuing to lose voters to other alternatives, including the leader-less BC Conservatives. The way the two parties approach the HST referendum campaign will define whether the numbers for both Campbell and James go through any major fluctuations as the ballot gets closer.

This year’s editions of the BC Political Scene can be accessed here:
March 2010 / April 2010 / June 2010 / July 2010 / September 2010

Full Report, Detailed Tables and Methodology (PDF)

CONTACT:

Mario Canseco, Vice President, Communications & Media Relations
+877 730 3570
mario.canseco@angus-reid.com

Methodology: From October 13 to October 14, 2010, Angus Reid Public Opinion conducted an online survey among 804 randomly selected British Columbia adults who are Angus Reid Forum panellists. The margin of error—which measures sampling variability—is +/- 3.5%. The results have been statistically weighted according to the most current education, age, gender and region Census data to ensure a sample representative of the entire adult population of British Columbia. Discrepancies in or between totals are due to rounding.