Tories Keep Lead, But Liberal-NDP Merger Could Change Status Quo
A single centre-left party would provide a real challenge to the Conservatives, but only if it is led by Jack Layton or Bob Rae.
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(05/31/10) -
A single centre-left party would provide a real challenge to the Conservatives, but only if it is led by Jack Layton or Bob Rae.
The Conservative Party is holding on to a comfortable lead in Canada’s political scene, a new Angus Reid Public Opinion poll has found.
The online survey of a representative national sample of 2,022 Canadians also looked at the way the electorate would behave in the event of a merger between the Liberal Party and the New Democratic Party (NDP) under three different prospective leaders.
Voting Intention
Across the country, 35 per cent of decided voters (unchanged since late April) would cast a ballot for the Conservative candidate in their riding if a new federal election took place today.
The Liberal Party is second with 27 per cent (-1), just one point ahead of the proportion of the vote that the party received in the October 2008 federal election.
The New Democratic Party (NDP) is third with 19 per cent (-1), followed by the Bloc Québécois with nine per cent (-2), and the Green Party with eight per cent (+1). One per cent of decided voters would support other parties.
Regional Breakdowns
The Tories remain the most popular party in Alberta (61%) and Manitoba and Saskatchewan (48%), and are still first in British Columbia (43%). In Ontario, the Conservatives are virtually tied with the Liberals (35% to 34%).
In Quebec, the Bloc is at 37 per cent (-4) and has a 14-point advantage over the Liberals (23%). The Tories are third with 18 per cent, followed by the NDP with 16 per cent.
Approval
For the third consecutive month, the approval rating for Prime Minister and Conservative leader Stephen Harper is 29 per cent, while NDP leader Jack Layton is barely the best rated leader at 30 per cent (-1). Liberal Party and Official Opposition leader Michael Ignatieff is at 13 per cent (-1).
Momentum
Ignatieff posted the worst momentum score in May at -28 (32% of respondents say their opinion of the Liberal leader has worsened, while four per cent report an improvement). Harper was not far behind at -24, while Layton is still the best leader in this category at -3.
A Liberal-NDP Merger?
The discussions about the Liberals and the NDP working together have intensified in recent days, partly due to the formation of a coalition government in the United Kingdom and statements made by former Prime Minister Jean Chrétien. The survey presented voters with the possibility of a federal election with a merged centre-left party under three different leaders.
Under current Liberal leader Michael Ignatieff, the merged party would attract 34 per cent of decided voters, six-points below the Conservatives (40%). However, the status quo across the country would prevail. There would be a virtual tie between the Tories and the new party in Ontario, the Conservatives would remain ahead in Western Canada, and the new party would trail the Bloc in Quebec.
Under former Ontario Premier Bob Rae, the merged party would be tied with the Conservatives at the national level (both at 38%). Rae garners better numbers than Ignatieff in British Columbia and holds a six-point edge over the Tories in Ontario. However, the gap between the Bloc and the merged-party in Quebec would grow to 15 points.
Under current NDP leader Jack Layton, the merged party would become the most popular in the country (43%), with the Conservatives six points behind (37%). Layton gives the new party an eight-point lead in Ontario, and fares better than Ignatieff in Western Canada. The surge in support for the merged party would come from Quebec, where Layton would have the backing of 44 per cent of decided voters—a ten-point lead over the sovereignist Bloc.
Analysis
There was little fluctuation in the level of support for the federal parties, and the assessment of the population about the three party leaders remains virtually unchanged.
The prospect of a centre-left merger—similar to the one that allowed the Conservative Party to challenge and ultimately break the Liberal hegemony—is not greeted with the same enthusiasm by voters when the leader is revealed.
Ignatieff would not provide the new party with a shot at victory. Rae’s popularity in Ontario, and to a lesser extent in British Columbia, would turn the next election into a tight contest. But Layton would immensely help the new party with good numbers in Ontario and a remarkable showing in Quebec, pushing the Bloc to second place for the first time in years.
Full Report, Detailed Tables and Methodology (PDF)
CONTACT:
Jodi Shanoff, Senior Vice President, Public Affairs
+416 712 5498
jodi.shanoff@angus-reid.com
Methodology: From May 25 to May 27, 2010, Angus Reid Public Opinion conducted an online survey among 2,022 randomly selected Canadian adults who are Angus Reid Forum panelists. The margin of error—which measures sampling variability—is +/- 2.2%, 19 times out of 20. The results have been statistically weighted according to the most current education, age, gender and region Census data to ensure a sample representative of the entire adult population of Canada. Discrepancies in or between totals are due to rounding.
