(04/01/10) -

Canadians Reject Extending Combat Mission in Afghanistan Beyond 2011

Respondents would welcome other arrangements to support Afghanistan, such as work related to training and development.

Respondents would welcome other arrangements to support Afghanistan, such as work related to training and development.

An Angus Reid Public Opinion poll—the first conducted since U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton urged Canada to reconsider its decision to end its military commitment in Afghanistan in 2011—finds that a large majority of Canadians reject the possibility of changes to the announced departure date for combat troops.

In the online survey of a representative sample of 1,006 Canadians, 79 per cent of respondents oppose Canadian troops taking part in a combat mission after the current mandate ends in 2011. Only 16 per cent of Canadians would consent to such an arrangement.

Most Canadians, however, would like the country to remain engaged in Afghanistan. More than half of respondents (54%) would support Canadian troops training the Afghan military after 2011.

In addition, almost two thirds of respondents (64%) would agree with Canadian soldiers participating in activities related to development and governance work.

Quebecers are clearly opposed to any extension of the combat mission (85%), and are also less keen than Canadians in other regions about training the Afghan military (47%) and assisting in development and governance work (49%).

Future of Afghanistan

Canadians do not believe that the situation in Afghanistan will improve markedly once Canadian troops are no longer involved in combat duties. Half of respondents (50%) believe the security situation will be the same at the end of 2011 as it is now, three-in-ten (30%) expect violence to increase and just six per cent foresee a decline in violence.

Also, two thirds of Canadians (68%) believe that the Government of Afghanistan will not be able to run its affairs without the assistance of international troops after 2011.

The Government of Afghanistan

When asked to select six words to describe the Government of Afghanistan, respondents choose mostly negative traits. A majority of Canadians (54%) believe the Afghan government is inefficient. Other characteristics that were picked by respondents are weak (47%), violates human rights (47%), dishonest (44%), oblivious to the country’s needs (37%), secretive (32%), and backward-looking (30%).

Analysis

Several NATO allies have gone through particularly divisive debates over their future role in Afghanistan. A discussion about this matter brought down the Dutch government only a few weeks ago. The plea from the U.S. Secretary of State did not change the prevailing point of view in Ottawa, and Canadians overwhelmingly reject any changes to the current timetable that calls for the end of the combat mission in 2011.

Still, the public would endorse an arrangement that would allow Canadian soldiers to play a different role and be away from the battlefield. While Canadians do not have a high opinion of the Afghan government at this time, they are also aware that the problems the country faces will not be over in the next 20 months.

Full Report, Detailed Tables and Methodology (PDF)

CONTACT:

Mario Canseco, Vice President, Public Affairs
+877 730 3570
mario.canseco@angus-reid.com

Methodology: From March 30 to March 31, 2010, Angus Reid Public Opinion conducted an online survey among 1,006 randomly selected Canadian adults who are Angus Reid Forum panelists. The margin of error—which measures sampling variability—is +/- 3.1%, 19 times out of 20. The results have been statistically weighted according to the most current education, age, gender and region Census data to ensure a sample representative of the entire adult population of Canada. Discrepancies in or between totals are due to rounding.