More Canadians Decry Prorogation, as Perceptions on Harper Turn Negative
Unique survey exposes Canadians to the Liberal Party’s recently released advertisements, and finds negligible effect from radio and print campaign.
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(01/13/10) -
Unique survey exposes Canadians to the Liberal Party’s recently released advertisements, and finds negligible effect from radio and print campaign.
A large proportion of Canadians are disappointed with the Prime Minister’s decision to prorogue Parliament, and the electorate’s perceptions of Stephen Harper have taken a negative turn, a new Angus Reid Public Opinion poll has found.
In order to gauge the effect of the recently released Liberal Party ads, half of respondents to this poll listened to the “cover-up” radio spot and saw the print version of the ad, while the other half were asked the exact same questions but without being exposed to the Liberal ads during the survey.
The online survey of a representative national sample of 1,077 Canadian adults is the first to test reactions from respondents on the recently released ads.
Prorogation
Almost half of Canadians (48%) are following the prorogation story “very closely” or “moderately closely”, up 14 points since the first week of January. Also, the proportion of respondents who have not followed this story at all dropped from 34 per cent to 22 per cent.
Three-in-five Canadians (61%) disagree with the decision to prorogue Parliament (including 44% who “strongly disagree”).
The level of disagreement with prorogation increased by eight points in a week, and is particularly high in Ontario and Atlantic Canada.
In all, 56 per cent of Canadians believe Stephen Harper prorogued Parliament because he is doing what is best for his party, a view shared by a majority of respondents in British Columbia (56%) and Ontario (64%).
Reasons for Prorogation
In all, 41 per cent of respondents believe Stephen Harper prorogued Parliament out of self-interest, 24 per cent say he did so because he has something to hide, and 21 per cent think he made the decision to cover up the Afghanistan detainee torture controversy.
Other mentions were to recalibrate the government’s agenda after a busy year (20%), to allow Senate committees to be reformed to reflect the new Conservative senators (also 20%) and not to distract from the Winter Olympics (14%).
Respondents who heard the radio ad and saw the print ad were more likely to believe that Harper has something to hide (27%) than those who were not exposed to the ads (22%).
Character Traits
Since January 2009, Angus Reid has tracked the way Canadians relate to the leaders of the two main federal parties on a wide range of character traits.
In the aftermath of prorogation, a majority of Canadians (52%) believe Stephen Harper is secretive, 48 per cent deem him arrogant, 41 per cent say he is intelligent, 37 per cent believe he is out of touch, 34 per cent feel he is uncaring, and 34 per cent find him boring.
Since October, Harper’s score has increased on several negative categories, including secretive (+6), arrogant (+4), dishonest (+5), and inefficient (+3).
The exposure to the Liberal ads did not have a marked effect on some of the negative character traits (such as arrogant and secretive), but those who saw and heard the ads were more likely to call Harper out of touch (40%) than those who were not exposed to them (35%).
Two-in-five Canadians (43%) believe Liberal leader Michael Ignatieff is arrogant, 42 per cent say he is intelligent, 37 per cent believe he is out of touch, 36 per cent find him boring, 28 per cent call him inefficient, and 24 per cent claim he is weak.
Since October, Ignatieff has shed several points on some of the negative character traits, including arrogant (-6), secretive (-6), out of touch (-5) and dishonest (-5).
The “Hidden Agenda”
When compared to the findings of an Angus Reid survey conducted in October 2008—just days before the federal election that resulted in a second Conservative minority government—Canadians are less likely to believe that a Tory majority would recriminalize abortion (24%, down 10 points), repeal same-sex marriage (34%, down five points), implement a process to have an elected Senate (35%, down six points), keep taxes low across the country (30%, down 17 points) and subdue the threat of separatism (25%, down 10 points).
As was the case in October 2008, three-in-five Canadians (62%) foresee a reduction in funding for programs related to the arts and film if the Conservatives form a majority government.
It is important to note that, on this particular question, the views of Canadians who listened to and saw the Liberal ads are not markedly different from the views of those who were not exposed to the advertisements.
Analysis
The level of interest in the prorogation story, and the proportion of respondents who disagree with the Prime Minister’s decision, increased over the course of the past week. However, less than half of Canadians agree with the notion that the closure of Parliament was related to self-interest, and lower proportions side with the cover-up argument.
The fear of a Conservative “hidden agenda” is now lower than it was at the end of the 2008 federal election campaign, particularly on issues such as abortion and same-sex marriage.
However, the survey does show that, in stark contrast to the findings of the past few months, Harper is garnering a larger proportion of negative mentions on character traits (particularly secretive and arrogant), while Ignatieff is shedding points on some of these same measures.
The damage to the Prime Minister’s image appears to have been done by prorogation itself, as exposure to the ads is not dramatically influencing Canadians.
Full Report, Detailed Tables and Methodology (PDF)
CONTACT:
Jaideep Mukerji, Vice President, Public Affairs
+514 409 0462
jaideep.mukerji@angus-reid.com
