(Angus Reid Global Monitor) – Australia’s upcoming election looks tight but the governing Australian Labor Party (ALP) holds an advantage in the two-party preferred vote system, according to a poll by Newspoll published in The Australian. 42 per cent of respondents would vote for the Coalition of Liberals and National in next month’s election to the House of Representatives, up four points since mid-July.
(Angus Reid Global Monitor) – Australia’s upcoming election looks tight but the governing Australian Labor Party (ALP) holds an advantage in the two-party preferred vote system, according to a poll by Newspoll published in The Australian. 42 per cent of respondents would vote for the Coalition of Liberals and National in next month’s election to the House of Representatives, up four points since mid-July.
The ALP is second with 40 per cent, down two points, followed by the Australian Greens with 12 per cent. Australia’s preferential voting system—where electors indicate an order of predilection for each contender, and the ballots from smaller parties are re-distributed—gives the ALP a four-point lead over the Coalition.
Australia held a federal election in November 2007. Final results gave the ALP 85 seats in the 150-member House of Representatives. ALP leader Kevin Rudd was officially sworn in as prime minister in December, bringing an end to the 11-year tenure of Liberal leader John Howard as head of Australia’s government.
Howard failed to retain his seat in the Bennelong constituency and stepped down as Liberal leader. Since their electoral defeat in 2007, the Liberals have had three different leaders: former defence minister Brendan Nelson, former environment minister Malcolm Turnbull, and former health minister Tony Abbott, the current leader.
On Jun. 23, ALP member and then deputy prime minister Julia Gillard called for a snap leadership challenge to Rudd to be held the following day. Although the prime minister had expressed confidence in having enough backers within his party’s ranks, he decided to step aside before the vote took place. Gillard became the first woman to serve as prime minister in Australia.
On Jul. 17, Gillard called an early election, which will be held on Aug. 21.
On Jul. 30, a spokeswoman for Rudd announced that he would undergo surgery to remove his gall bladder that day, adding, "Mr. Rudd looks forward to resuming campaign activities next week both in his own electorate, elsewhere in Queensland and the rest of the country as appropriate in support of the re-election of the government and Prime Minister Gillard."
Polling Data
If a federal election to the House of Representatives were held today, which one of the following would you vote for? If "Uncommitted", to which one of these do you have a leaning?
|
|
Jul. 25
|
Jul. 18
|
Jun. 27
|
Jun. 20
|
|
Coalition (Liberal / National)
|
42%
|
38%
|
40%
|
40%
|
|
Australian Labor Party
|
40%
|
42%
|
42%
|
35%
|
|
Australian Greens
|
12%
|
12%
|
10%
|
15%
|
|
Others
|
6%
|
8%
|
8%
|
10%
|
Two-Party Preferred Vote
|
|
Jul. 25
|
Jul. 18
|
Jun. 27
|
Jun. 20
|
|
Australian Labor Party
|
52%
|
55%
|
53%
|
52%
|
|
Coalition (Liberal / National)
|
48%
|
45%
|
47%
|
48%
|
Source: Newspoll / The Australian
Methodology: Telephone interviews with 1,720 Australian voters, conducted from Jul. 23 to Jul. 25, 2010. Margin of error is 2.4 per cent.
