(Angus Reid Global Monitor) – The former powerhouse of Mexican politics is poised for a strong electoral comeback, according to a poll by GEA-ISA. 52 per cent of respondents—all decided voters—would support the Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) candidate in the next presidential election, up three points since November.
(Angus Reid Global Monitor) – The former powerhouse of Mexican politics is poised for a strong electoral comeback, according to a poll by GEA-ISA. 52 per cent of respondents—all decided voters—would support the Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) candidate in the next presidential election, up three points since November.
The candidate representing the ruling National Action Party (PAN) is second with 27 per cent, followed by the representative of the Democratic Revolution Party (PRD) with 15 per cent.
The PAN’s Vicente Fox ended 71 years of uninterrupted rule by the PRI in the 2000 presidential election, winning a six-year term with 42.5 per cent of the vote.
Mexican voters chose their new president in July 2006. Official results placed Felipe Calderón of the PAN as the winner with 36.68 per cent of all cast ballots, followed by Andrés Manuel López Obrador of the PRD with 36.11 per cent, and Roberto Madrazo of the PRI with 22.71 per cent. Calderón—a former energy secretary—took over as Mexico’s head of state in December.
In July 2009, Mexico held a mid-term legislative election. The opposition PRI received 36.68 per cent of the vote, compared to 27.98 per cent for the PAN. The number of PAN lawmakers in the Chamber of Deputies was decimated from 206 to 146. The PRI now controls 241 seats in the 500-member lower house, plus 17 seats from its ally, the Green Environmentalist Party (PVEM).
The list of prospective presidential candidates for the PRI includes Mexico state governor Enrique Peña Nieto, national party leader Beatriz Paredes, Sonora senator Manlio Fabio Beltrones, and Veracruz state governor Fidel Herrera. López Obrador and current Mexico City mayor Marcelo Ebrard are expected to vie for the PRD nod. Possible PAN contenders include former interior secretary Santiago Creel, education secretary Josefina Vázquez Mota, and social development secretary Ernesto Cordero.
On Mar. 16, PAN national leader César Nava and PRD counterpart Jesús Ortega confirmed that the two parties have formed regional coalitions to prevent PRI candidates from securing victories in upcoming gubernatorial elections. Nava added that the alliance might also translate into collaborations in the national legislature, saying, "In 2009 we lived under the blackmail and threats by the PRI, which abused of its majority in the lower chamber."
The next presidential election is scheduled for July 2012.
Polling Data
If you had to vote right now to elect a president, which party’s candidate would you vote for? (Decided Voters)
|
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Feb. 2010
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Nov. 2009
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Aug. 2009
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Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI)
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52%
|
49%
|
45%
|
|
National Action Party (PAN)
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27%
|
26%
|
32%
|
|
Democratic Revolution Party (PRD)
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15%
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17%
|
19%
|
|
Other
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4%
|
8%
|
4%
|
Source: GEA-ISA
Methodology: Face-to-face interviews with 1,000 Mexican adults, conducted from Feb. 27 to Mar. 1, 2010. Margin of error is 4 per cent.
