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canada_mar03
(03/03/10) -

Conservatives Still Four Points Ahead in Canada

(Angus Reid Global Monitor) – The governing Conservative Party maintains the upper hand in Canada, according to a poll by Angus Reid Public Opinion. 33 per cent of respondents would support the Tories in the next election to the House of Commons.

(Angus Reid Global Monitor) – The governing Conservative Party maintains the upper hand in Canada, according to a poll by Angus Reid Public Opinion. 33 per cent of respondents would support the Tories in the next election to the House of Commons.

The opposition Liberal Party is second with 29 per cent, followed by the New Democratic Party (NDP) with 20 per cent, the Bloc Québécois with nine per cent, and the Greens also with nine per cent.

Canadians renewed the House of Commons in October 2008. The Conservative party—led by Stephen Harper—received 37.6 per cent of the vote, and secured 143 seats in the 308-member lower house. Harper assembled a minority administration. The Tories also earned a minority mandate after the 2006 election, ending more than 12 years of government by the Liberal party. In December, Michael Ignatieff took over as Liberal leader, replacing Stéphane Dion.

In late December, the federal government announced that the legislative branch would suspend its activities until March 2010. The decision led to public protests and extensive condemnation from the opposition.

Today, the federal government is expected to present its agenda in the traditional Speech from the Throne, read by governor-general Michaëlle Jean. Bloc Québécois House leader Pierre Paquette discussed the current state of affairs, saying, "If [the Conservatives] want to work with some efficiency in the House, they have to understand they are a minority government and they have to work with the opposition."

The next election to the House of Commons is tentatively scheduled for Oct. 15, 2012. Sitting prime ministers can dissolve Parliament and call an early ballot at their discretion. In order to trigger an election, all three opposition parties in the House of Commons—Liberals, NDP and Bloc Québécois—would have to defeat the government in a no-confidence motion.

Polling Data

If a federal election were held tomorrow, which one of the following parties would you be most likely to support in your constituency?

 

Feb. 26

Feb. 13

Jan. 26

Jan. 13

Conservative

33%

34%

33%

34%

Liberal

29%

30%

29%

28%

New Democratic Party

20%

18%

19%

19%

Bloc Québécois

9%

9%

10%

9%

Green

9%

8%

7%

8%

Other

1%

1%

2%

1%

Source: Angus Reid Public Opinion
Methodology: Online interviews with 1,008 Canadian adults, conducted on Feb. 25 and Feb. 26, 2010. Margin of error is 3.1 per cent.

Complete Poll (PDF)