(02/15/10) -

Hungarys Fidesz Starts Campaign with 40-Point Lead

(Angus Reid Global Monitor) – The Hungarian Citizens Party (Fidesz) is the overwhelming favourite as the country’s election draws near, according to a poll by Tarki. 62 per cent of respondents—all decided voters—would support the main opposition party in this year’s ballot, down one point since December.

(Angus Reid Global Monitor) – The Hungarian Citizens Party (Fidesz) is the overwhelming favourite as the country’s election draws near, according to a poll by Tarki. 62 per cent of respondents—all decided voters—would support the main opposition party in this year’s ballot, down one point since December.

The ruling Hungarian Socialist Party (MSZP) is a distant second with 22 per cent, followed by the Movement for a Better Hungary (Jobbik) with 11 per cent. Support is much lower for the Hungarian Democratic Forum (MDF) and the Alliance of Free Democrats (SZDSZ).

Hungarian voters renewed their National Assembly in April 2006. The MSZP and the Alliance of Free Democrats (SZDSZ) won 210 of the legislative branch’s 386 seats, securing a full term for Socialist prime minister Ferenc Gyurcsany. Fidesz, led by Viktor Orban, elected 164 lawmakers.

In June 2006, Gyurcsany introduced a fiscal "austerity package" of state subsidy reductions and tax increases, aimed at lowering the country’s fiscal deficit.

In September 2006, Gyurcsany was criticized after Hungary’s state radio aired portions of an audiotape—which had been recorded in May—in which he told members of the MSZP that his administration "lied throughout the past one and a half or two years" about the state of the country’s economy in order to win re-election. The prime minister’s words sparked a two-week riot that threatened to end his government.

In March 2008, Gyurcsany stepped down as prime minister, as he faced mounting criticism over his handling of the economy. The MSZP picked finance minister Gordon Bajnai to be the next head of government. In April, Bajnai and the cabinet survived a no-confidence motion in a 199-169 vote.

In June 2009, Fidesz won 14 of 22 seats in the election to the European Parliament. In December, the governing Socialists chose Attila Mesterhazy, a 35-year-old economist, to lead the party into the next election.

On Feb. 10, Orban defended his decision to not attach precise amounts to his pledge to cut taxes, saying he will not do it "until it becomes clear how many skeletons have been left in the closet," and adding, "Until a change of government, no responsible politician can discuss figures or percentages."

The next election in Hungary is scheduled for Apr. 11 and Apr. 25. The country’s electoral system calls for a first round, where a shortlist of all the candidates who receive more than 15 per cent of the vote is created. In the second round, the actual winner is chosen from these candidates. For the first round to be valid, more than 50 per cent of registered voters must take part. In the second round, the threshold is reduced to 25 per cent.

Polling Data

Which party would you vote for in the next legislative election? (Decided Voters)

Source: Tarki
Methodology: Telephone interviews with 1,000 Hungarian voters, conducted from Jan. 8 to Jan. 18, 2010. Margin of error is 3.1 per cent.